2023. 9. 1
Apr 23. 2023
Amazon fall after warning on slowind down in cloud business growth
台灣雲端設備廠商最近半年來營收趨勢
16 Jun 2023
Global High-Yield Default Rate Seen Hitting 5% in 2024, Moody’s Says
Corporate defaults to peak at 5% in April before easing in May
Higher
borrowing costs, tight lending standards add pressure
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/high-yield-bond-defaults-rising-fitch/
https://www.insightinvestment.com/united-states/perspectives/three-high-yield-myths-debunked/
10 Jun 2023
那這樣沒錯 ~ Fed 升息已開始對美國製造業, 工具機( 高資本支出行業)造成影響
這些行業負債比高, 資本支出大, Lbor rate 一提高, 他們CFO會緊縮預算支出
大概只有房地產還撐得住
你可以想像 如政府大量出售公債 吸納市場資金
自然會讓市場流動性降低 原本央行可以同歩購債來解決這個短期現象 可是偏偏Fed正在緊縮市場資金. 我猜首當其衝的應該就是目前正面臨資金需求/利率上揚的中小型銀行. 再推一下去 就是企業會受到資金緊縮影響 不過這會是短期現象
至於短期是多短 就要看情況了
沒錯 ~ 前幾天美財政部發行1,000 B短期國庫券, 那個就是!! 大家都認為會將1~3個月Libor rate 推高, 企業&銀行端流動資金會感到壓力, 我們得看製造業, 服務業(財務)流動比率能否面對這種壓力. 我認為目前美國消費還ok, 零售業存貨還能短期把錢收回來, 但是5月Chicago PMI和 ISM數據明顯降低, 上頭製造業再緊縮, 得續觀察
Reession :
from the Sep 2022, there ar already 2 times of layoff among big Tech
Concern on Inflation remaining Jan 2023prodution prie index strongly rising
Some ocean shipping rates collapsing, but real price relief is months away
Drewry World Container Index (WCI)
Baupost chief Seth Klarman blames Federal Reserve for ‘financial fantasyland’
嘿嘿 ! Karlman 認為未來經濟衰退會到來, 只是延遲一段時間
Recovery :
Class 8 orders soar in September to record high. Can OEMs deliver?
The price explosion in used trucks cut across the retail, wholesale, and auction segments of the market, said sources, including auctioneer Richie Bros.—unusual since the different parts of the used market serve different parts of the industry.
easing of component shortages and other random economic factors—before the push-pull dynamic of new trucks vs. used trucks becomes known in the new year.
John Deere
Deere & Co
(DE.N) raised its annual profit forecast on Friday after beating Wall Street
estimates for the latest quarter on higher revenue for its high-horsepower
tractors and an increase in spending from construction customers. Demand from
farmers has been strong, after higher commodity prices last year aided
producers to purchase new equipment or upgrade their fleets.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AAA10Y
從5月份 AAA級 - 公債利差縮小, 顯示資金離開公債買公司債
市場認為未來 1~2年企業盈利恢復
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