2022 作戰方針

 

判斷通膨是否惡化

1.  原物料方面先盯 小麥期貨, 續漲只是給民生消費更大壓力( 確定俄羅斯-中國- 印度是糧食淨進口, 烏克蘭是小麥主要出口國)
2.  美國房地產, 追蹤其房價是否續漲, 房屋建案成本是否續上漲( 房地產佔比美國GDP50%), 房價上漲, 租金也會跟著上漲, 連帶商店販售也提高價格, 助長通膨最明顯
3. 勞工實質工資 Real average hourly earnings 是否明顯衰退, 衰退跟不上通膨率, 6個月 ~ 12個月影響民生消費
4. 2023 ~ 2024 盯美國Income tax, Corporation tax 是否提高稅率 ( 鑄幣稅) 典型通膨惡化, 政府稅收無法繳龐大美債利息, 只好 left Tax rate 

Affirm - But now pay later evoluted to " Securitization "

Affirm struggles to convince investors of fintech bona fides

Buy now pay later’ group becomes more reliant on loans amid plummeting share price. Max Levchin founded Affirm Holdings in the belief that younger people were more open to borrowing from Silicon Valley start-ups than established lenders. “Consumers, particularly millennials and Gen Z, have lost trust in financial institutions,” Levchin told investors last year, and “increasingly prefer more flexible and innovative digital payment solutions in lieu of traditional credit payment options”. His vision has made San Francisco-based Affirm one of the biggest “buy now, pay later” companies, which allow shoppers to obtain unsecured instalment loans when they buy clothes, electronics and other goods online. Quarterly results due on Thursday are expected to show a net loss of $156mn on $345mn of revenue, according to a Bloomberg poll of analysts. Some say Affirm bears a closer resemblance to a traditional financial institution than its digital sheen would suggest.



“These kind of hybrid financial technology stocks, they kind of trade like tech stocks when they’re growing really fast and the financial side of their business doesn’t cause any problems,” said Chris Brendler, an analyst at D A Davidson. “But if you start having higher losses or funding problems, that’s when they start to perform like financials.” Affirm’s pitch to retailers has been simple: by allowing the customers to split up payments for merchandise, sometimes without interest, they will sell more products. Retailers pay Affirm “merchant discount fees”, effectively a commission of a few percentage points of a purchase price. In 2020 nearly 60 % of the company’s revenue was derived from such fees. Affirm’s largest merchant during the pandemic was Peloton, the stationary bike maker whose sales are now in decline. But Affirm’s business mix has begun to shift after it signed partnerships with large retailers such as Amazon and Walmart — companies with enough heft to avoid having to pay merchant discount fees. Instead, the majority of Affirm’s revenue is now coming from its function as a lender: by selling loans either through securitisations or to third-party buyers such as insurance companies, or by earning interest income for the assets that it keeps on its own balance sheet. In its most recent reported quarter, more than half of the revenue came from interest income and gains on the sale of loans.



Affirm said it was still committed to growing its fee-generating businesses as part of a strategy to build “a menu of different products to meet consumer and merchant needs across cart sizes, categories, and payment terms”.  Affirm said. Unlike a traditional bank, Affirm does not hold consumer deposits and instead relies on “warehouse” lines of credit. 

海龜 50 - Camaco

 

對於CCJ老是無法在相對高點了結獲利, 2022年4月中旬就曾出過一次這種包, 回顧一下當時心態 :  

CCJ 當時漲到31-32塊, 沒設停損單, 等到破30塊, 變成27-28塊, 心中有些懊惱, 想到原本可以賣在30塊以上, 現在變27塊, 就賭氣乾脆不賣了....... 給它放到爛跌回22 - 23塊. 蠻後悔當初27-28塊沒賣, 因為一時瀟灑, 既然跌了, 33塊沒賣出去, 就讓它繼續跌吧, 無所謂 ....

不敢面對失敗心情,  結果1個星期後, 市場風雲變色, 現在躺在那邊無限殘念..... 

為什麼6/7 ~ 6/10這段高檔期間沒獲利了結呢 !?

6/9 收26.1沒賣出原因, 你怕設停損stop limit 25塊, 回跌觸動賣出, 假如價格在24.5~ 25附近停留一會兒, 再度往上飆 ~ 飆到 30 

而且當時心態 : 

1. 前一晚都已經出大量, 傾向認為CCJ 會一直上去( 6/7在27塊仍大量加碼200股, 可知我有相當自信 )
2. 市場認為油價會一直上去, CCJ鈾礦與油價正相關, 6/10以前市場對大環境還不悲觀

結果6/10晚上開盤前發布CPI增幅8.6%創新高, 市場一陣殺盤

心裡想沒關係, 油價通膨那是對大盤-科技股-民生消費負面

我的CCJ 是漲油價的, 沒在怕 ~  只做一個option避險 買進賣權, 價位25塊, 到期日7/22 (CCJ Jul 22 2022 25.0  Buy Put) 

下星期一6/13 美股開盤跳空全殺, 原因殖利率再度倒掛, 預估企業庫存增 ( 才意識到經濟可能衰退), 心裡想 .....慘了

經濟衰退, 大盤習慣全部殺下去, 沒在分什麼 科技股 ~ 民生消費 - 金融股 , 通殺 ! 

當晚1點睡覺前, 只能CCJ 賣掉一半, 另一半設停損單 22塊

連stop limit 停損單都忽略不設, 想說CCJ長期看好, 未來2~3年漲上40~ 50很有機會, 萬一回跌23塊, 想像那些價投大師一樣, 我氣定神閒的再加碼(或頂多賣出), 期待先蹲後跳, 我好有自信 👍👍 

結果哩 !! 

結果等到6/11真的跌破23塊, 邊按滑鼠停損 臉上表情僵硬, 白茫茫望著螢幕殘念 .... 👻 你真遜 

但有另一種可能 :  CCJ 和 TTD 賣出去後, 股價真的下殺, 我是否有種賺到感覺, 太棒了 ! 我逃的漂亮, 變成以後標的(或帳戶價值)只要一達到新高點就想賣出, 沒賣出就覺得難受, 價格下跌, 急著想買進, 假如再跌, 就懊惱買太早, 整個投資風格變得像技術交易者, 計較毛頭小利, 得失心重, 容易患得患失, 

海龜 28 - Tidewater

美國經濟統計資料

 

美國經濟資料 統計

海龜 7 號 : Deutsche bank

 先來做一點回顧

DB 在3-4月份曾經做3口 sell put 13, 後來賭輸只好在5月份執行價格13 買進300股

5/25 ~ 26 價格一度來到11.2附近, 有想過賣出, 但想到( 13塊 - 11.2)*300 = 約600塊 損失

想到帳戶要減少600塊, 就不想賣了 ~  再度啟動泰欽哥瀟灑風格 心裡想 --- 頂多跌破10塊我再賣

結果6/11 大盤通殺, 才賣在 9.5 ~ 9.6塊, 至少多損失300USD

And we are on track to publish 2050 net zero targets for key carbon intensive portfolios, together with intermediate targets for 2030 at our second Sustainability Deep Dive in October

We will also share further details on our net zero strategy at this event and how we partner with our clients in their decarbonisation efforts




成長動力來源

Starting with revenues, Group revenues increased by 1% year on year and the Core Bank contributed by generating revenues of 7.3 billion euros, up 3% year on year

Excluding revenues in Corporate & Other and the Capital Release Unit, the average annual increase of revenues in the four operating divisions was 7%

Revenues in the Corporate Bank were up 11% year on year, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, driven by continued deposit repricing and business growth

Investment Bank revenues grew 7% year on year, over a strong first quarter in 2021. A 15% increase in FIC revenues more than offset a 28% decline in Origination & Advisory

In the Private Bank, continued strong business growth more than offset interest rate headwinds and, as a result, revenues were up 2% year on year - Across all these businesses we delivered strong growth in client lending. Our total loan book is currently at 481 billion euros, up 9% year on year 

Asset Management revenues rose 7% year on year, driven by a 13% rise in management fees which reflects consecutive quarters of inflows and assets under management growth during last year 

Moving now to costs, noninterest expenses were down 4% year on year, despite an increase in bank levies of 28%, or more than 150 million euros, which was offset by lower transformation charges and the cessation of Prime Finance costs - Adjusted costs excluding bank levies, transformation charges and Prime Finance were also down 1% year on year reflecting lower investment spending needs after the completion of some IT projects and delivery of efficiency gains, in line with plan - Beyond these cost items, we faced higher than expected expenses mainly in compensation costs, which James will detail later




Our priority is to advance with our strategic plans and to further improve our profitability and efficiency, while benefiting from strong risk management


But we remain committed to delivering positive operating leverage and tackling cost challenges while also capturing revenue opportunities, as we did in the first quarter


We are committed to our plan to return capital to shareholders, having already completed the 2022 share buyback program of 300 million euros




Net interest margin expected to have bottom in 2021
-Let me provide some detail on the evolution of our net interest margin on slide 9
- Looking back, the decline of net interest margin in the first half of 2020 was driven by the cut in US rates
- The margin has been broadly stable since then, above the level we initially anticipated, driven by increased balance sheet efficiency, deposit repricing and TLTRO income that helped offset ongoing deposit margin pressure
- Adjusting for TLTRO timing effects, NIM in the first quarter would have been at the prior year level - From here, we expect NIM to rise due to tailwinds from the rising interest rate environment




Adjusted costs – Q1 2022 (YoY)
-If we look at the year-on-year cost developments on slide 11, adjusted costs decreased by 135 million euros or 3%. Excluding FX effects, costs were down 5% or 237 million euros
- IT costs declined by 110 million euros driven by completion of certain projects and capturing the expected delivery of efficiencies - Then, professional services and other noncompensations costs came down by 136 million euros due to the completion of IT, control and remediation projects
- Compensation expenses increased by 9 million euros compared to the prior year. Effects from the workforce reduction were offset by payroll inflation and by the impacts from variable compensation and selected strategic investments




– Provision for credit losses
-Provision for credit losses for the first quarter was 24 basis points of average loans on an annualised basis, or 292 million euros, in line with guidance. A moderate sequential increase was entirely driven by the war in Ukraine


-Elevated stage 1 and 2 provision of 178 million euros, compared to net releases of 95 million euros in the prior year quarter, relate to downgrades of all Russian exposures and additional overlays to reflect macroeconomic uncertainties
- Stage 3 provision of 114 million euros includes a few impairment events predominantly on Russian names in the Corporate Bank. This was offset by a small number of larger releases in the Investment Bank, while the Private Bank provision benefited from a model recalibration

Mighty Asian financial institutions are reshaping global capital flows

 

Ten years ago “official” foreign investors—mainly central banks managing their currency reserves—held $3.4trn in American Treasuries, about three-quarters of all Treasuries held abroad. Anyone wanting to understand the huge flows in and out of dollar bonds therefore kept an eagle eye on the big reserve managers.

There has been plenty of movement of late. China’s reserves—the largest single foreign stash of Treasuries—fell by $68bn in April, 2% of the total and the largest monthly drop in more than five years. Japan’s reserves declined by $31bn, the biggest-ever monthly fall. India’s reserves shrank by $26bn in March, the most since the market panic of October 2008. Those in South Korea and Taiwan have fallen, too 半年來這5個國家央行正大舉縮減外匯儲備的美元公債部位



Reserve managers are a tight-lipped bunch, and rarely explain precisely why their holdings have changed. But some of the recent declines are likely to reflect simple valuation effects. The dollar has strengthened; as a result, holdings denominated in other currencies, such as the euro, are worth fewer dollars.  Some reserve managers have also intervened in the market by selling their holdings in order to limit currency depreciation. 外匯準備美元資產漲, Credit side 本國貨幣貶值, 賣掉一些美公債, 抵銷本國貨幣貶值壓力

Yet this presents an increasingly partial picture of capital flows. Asian private institutions that cater to ageing populations, such as pension funds and insurers, have exploded in recent years. The assets of Taiwan’s life insurers alone, for instance, have more than doubled in less than a decade. Rather like central banks, these tend to buy and hold safe government bonds and liquid corporate debt. 亞洲國家普遍面臨高齡老化問題, 退休和社保基金傾向持有更多公債部位, 未來他們正逐漸增持有美公債


As a consequence, the share of Treasuries owned by official investors has fallen, to 58% of all Treasuries held abroad. Private foreign holdings make up the rest, and have risen from $1.1trn to $2.8trn over the past decade. Sales and purchases of Treasuries by private investors can swamp those made by official investors, as recent trends have made clear. Official investors sold $36bn in Treasuries to American punters in the first three months of this year. That looks measly compared with the purchases made by foreign private investors. They snapped up $235bn in Treasuries, the biggest haul in any quarter on record.

This divergence makes sense. Reserve managers get out of Treasuries when American interest rates climb, to protect their currencies from a stronger dollar. Private investors, enticed by juicier yields on long-dated bonds, dive in. Even quasi-public institutions 國事業, 台灣中華電信, 英國電信 

like Japan’s and South Korea’s mammoth state-pension schemes have goals and risk tolerances that differ from reserve managers. Nonetheless, because most of the newly important institutions grew rapidly during a period of low inflation and rock-bottom interest rates, predicting their actions as circumstances change will not be easy.

Things are murkiest誨暗不明 of all in China, where the aims of financial institutions and the government’s foreign-exchange managers can dovetail 合作無間. In 2020 and 2021, for instance, China’s official reserves were curiously stable, raising analysts’ eyebrows. While most other Asian countries with large trade surpluses were reporting surging reserves, China’s rose by less than 5%. That raised the possibility that China was using its banks to intervene in the market: Alex Etra of Exante Data, a research firm, and Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, have pointed to the surging value of Chinese lenders’ net foreign assets as evidence of hidden intervention. So far this year, though, there is little indication that China has used its state banks to disguise intervention.

Interpreting the shifts in capital flows was hardly easy when it involved deciphering the actions of relatively taciturn reserve managers. The new, more crowded field of investors with various holdings, strategies and objectives will give analysts an even bigger headache.  

AFFIRM 公司研究

Our view: While the Apple announcement had been previously speculated, it does officially mark Apple’s arrival in the BNPL space and brings incremental competition to the industry. Apple's primary benefit will come from the distribution advantage of its Apple Pay product, which is accepted at 85% of US retailers and any in-store location that accepts contactless payments (according to Apple). Additionally, the millions of US consumers who use Apple Pay will be prompted with a BNPL offer on all Apple Pay purchases after signing up for the

service. With that said, we continue to like Affirm’s competitive positioning as Affirm offers a broader set of offerings, including Split Pay, 0% APR loans, and interest-bearing loans (long and shorter duration). This gives Affirm flexibility with merchants and consumers who need different credit offerings as well as the
most levers to pull as interest rates rise to effectively offset higher funding costs. Apple’s announcement indicates it will strictly be a 6-week zero-interest offering, which is most similar to Block's Afterpay, which also exclusively offers a 0% APR service that is paid back over 6 weeks.

2022 美國民生消費 研究 ( 通膨情境下 )

 

1. Higher fuel costs could be a big headwind for retailers.

2. Erratic不定期規則 receipts of General Merchandise inventory impacted sales and margins 供應鏈阻塞, 零售業倉儲進貨變得很不穩定, 計算期末存貨困難, 會計影響gross margin

3.Mix shift to Grocery, exacerbated by higher food inflation, is driving gross margin contraction. Food at Home inflation is running at ~11% vs overall CPI at ~8%. As a result, even if actual consumption is unchanged, consumers' spending mix is naturally shifting to Grocery, which is a lower margin category. For low-income consumers in particular, food inflation is eating into discretionary dollars, which could be exacerbating the dilutive mix shift. WMT called out this dynamic as a driver of gross margin contraction in Q1 against a reasonably healthy (albeit inflation-driven) sales backdrop. We would expect to see a similar mix shift and consequent margin contraction at DG and DLTR given their higher exposure to low income shoppers, 低價零售店業績成長, 但毛利仍然微降 and potentially TGT as well given the degree of inflation (despite TGT's higher-income core customer)

4.The first major indication in our coverage of the low-income consumer feeling pinched. Related to point #3, the degree to which WMT's merchandise mix shift toward Grocery suggests at least some of WMT's customers are pulling back on discretionary purchases, particularly as food inflation (and other inflationary pressures like gas prices) exerts more pressure on low-income wallets. MS Economists believe low-income consumers have entirely exhausted their excess savings from stimulus; we expect this cohort 相同特徵 to further pull back on discretionary spending through the year, which is a negative read-through for retailers with low-income consumer exposure and some discretionary mix (including DG, DLTR, FIVE, and OLLI).

5. WMT took significant share in Grocery. WMT US Grocery comps were up low double digits, well ahead of key industry benchmarks including Nielsen data (+MSD%) and Census Retail Sales (+HSD%).WMT 股價表現超越產業指標 It's also a negative read-through for other consumables retailers, in our view. The positive is WMT's high absolute growth rate reflects persistent inflation, which should benefit all retailers. But that WMT is taking share off a large base 這句慢慢蒐集資料 - 檢視 (we estimate WMT took ~$6b of the ~$20b of incremental category growth in its fiscal Q1) is a less bullish read-through to other consumables retailers and conventional grocers like KR and ACI, though it's not clear exactly where WMT's share gains are coming from.

(Bloomberg) -- Walmart Inc. tumbled the most in almost 35 years after cutting its full-year profit forecast due to inflationary pressures, especially in food and fuel.


The worsening outlook shook Wall Street’s faith in Walmart’s ability to cope with higher costs for merchandise, transportation and labor. The results also underscored the pressure on US consumers as soaring prices send sentiment to the lowest in a decade. Walmart and peers already were facing tough comparisons to early 2021, when federal stimulus payments bolstered household spending during the coronavirus pandemic.


Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon set the stage for more price increases at the world’s largest retailer, saying the company would seek to balance customers’ needs with the goal of delivering profit growth. His goal is to raise prices while seeking to stay below competitors and limiting the price bumps on entry-level food items.

“Price leadership is especially important right now,” McMillon told analysts. He pledged to vowed to put the disappointing quarter “behind us and have a strong year.”

Earnings are likely to drop about 1% this year, the retailer said in a statement Tuesday, abandoning its previous forecast for a mid-single-digit gain. In the first quarter, adjusted profit sank to $1.30 a share, below the lowest of 29 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

While revenue growth remained robust, U.S. sales of groceries accounted for much of the growth -- and they tend to have lower margins than general merchandise, sales of which fell. The results are a “clear negative,” Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge, said in a note to clients.

“One of the world’s largest and most sophisticated companies proved unable to escape the same corporate margin pressures hurting most firms and even the sales performance isn’t as good as it looks,” he said. That’s because revenue was “driven mostly by food inflation while the discretionary merchandise category slumped 10-11%,” he said.


The operating backdrop has become increasingly complex,” Edward Kelly, an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co., said in a report in which he referred to Walmart by its ticker symbol. “Consumers are starting to make tougher choices, and while WMT is well positioned for trade down as a value player, it needs to take more price.”



Surging fuel prices -- spurred in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine -- pushed up costs faster than Walmart was able to pass them along to consumers last quarter, McMillon told analysts. He also called out labor challenges and temporary overstaffing due to Covid, higher costs for containers and storage, excess inventory, and a shift in spending away from general merchandise, which typically has higher profit margins than groceries.

Lowering estimates and SOTP-backed PT to $156 (from $167). We are lowering our F'23/F'24 EPS estimates by ~5% to $6.40/$6.90 (from $6.75/$7.30 prior). Our F'23 EPS estimate is in-line with updated guidance and embeds +3.5% WMT US comps, ~4% net sales growth, ~5 bps ( 0.01%) of total gross margin contraction, ~15 bps
of S&GA leverage, and -1% EBIT/EPS growth. In F'24 we model +3% WMT UScomps, ~3.5% net sales growth, ~5 bps ( 0.01%) of EBIT margin expansion, and ~5.5%/~8% EBIT/EPS growth. Our SOTP-backed PT falls $11 or ~6.5%, with $5 driven by our updated estimates and SOTP assumptions, $5 from lower multiples on our US brick & mortar and Sam's Club EBITDA estimates, and $1 from mark to market JD.com numbers. Our PT implies ~22.5x our F'24e EPS of $6.90, which we estimate is ~20x on a "core" basis (ie excluding growth investments like Flipkart). We stay OW rated with ~19% upside to our $156 PT. 

👆 以上這段未來想估值 WMT, 參考用

SOTP is the process of determining what the individual divisions of a company would be worth if they 
were spun off or bought by a different company. SOTP enables a company to establish a useful measure of its value which can be highly relevant in the case of a hostile takeover or a restructuring.

Home Depot

In ’22 we forecast comps of ~3% (in-line with raised guidance), 5 bps of gross margin contraction as freight/supply chain pressures are partially offset by HD taking price, ~15 bps of SG&A leverage (~3% SG&A/ft growth), and ~20 bps of EBIT
margin expansion (~4% EBIT growth). Alongside ~$1.6b of net interest expense, a 24.6% tax rate, and ~$8.3b of buybacks, this produces EPS of $16.55 (+6.5% y/y, slightly above the guided mid-single-digit increase). There could be upside to our ‘22 forecast. If HD’s qualitative commentary on elevated home price appreciation
driving Home Improvement demand is accurate and the business holds its 3Y geometric stacks at the current run rate (up in the low 40% range) 問題經濟數據 home decoration, furnishings 消費下降 , this would imply mid-single-digit comps in '22. Assuming similar flow through, ~$17 in ’22 EPS could be possible (a high-single-digit y/y increase).

Paul Krugman 近期對通膨的想法 ( NY Times )

 

2008 Nobel prize in Economics

Wonking Out: Is Stagflation Making a Comeback?

May 20, 2022

When I talk to business groups these days, the most commonly asked question is, “Are we headed for stagflation?” I’m pretty sure they find my response unsatisfying, because I tell them it depends on their definition of the term. 最近最常被問到的問題 " 我們現在正處於停滯性通膨嗎 ?? " 我很確信自己回答無法令人滿意, 我告訴他們 - 這取決於你對停滯性通膨的定義 是如何 !

If they understand it to mean a period of rising unemployment combined with inflation that’s still too high, the answer is that there’s a very good chance that we’ll suffer from that malady for at least a few months.

假如你的定義是高通膨伴隨著失業率逐步上升, 那麼Yes !! 我們有很大機會面對接下來長達幾個月停滯性通膨

But if they’re referring to something like the extreme pain we suffered to close out the 1970s, it looks unlikely.

但假如要像1970s那般通膨得令人難忘, 我想..... 目前狀況仍然還不是那樣

To explain the difference, consider two historical episodes.