1960-70 年代發生過什麼 ! , 再回過頭看2020 ( 一 )

很多市場老手有經歷過1990年代初期以及2000科技泡沫, 對於這次2018-2019 最後2年走勢都摸不著頭緒, 其實2010以後的低利率, 早有歐美一些經濟學者把它拿來跟After World war 2 二次大戰後低利率時期相比 ( 大家可上 Macrotrend 網站一查)  本篇報告聚焦在1965 -1975這段期間 Fed 也是瘋狂印鈔票, 終至1975年發生無法挽救的高通膨 -高失業率, 大家興趣看完本篇摘要, 可想想目前2020大環境跟1970年代 有哪些類似之處 !  ( 節省時間者, 可直接文拉到最後, 有做後論心得, 最簡單明白 )

https://www.sitkapacific.com/recent-letters/Sitka_Pacific_July-August_2020_Client_Letter.pdf

原文鏈結來自Sitka Pacific Capital Management, LLC經理人 Brian McAuley , 認為他的觀點不錯, 本人做重點翻譯( 有錯誤歡迎指正 )

As the Fed’s zero percent interest rate policy and quantitative easing continued for years after the end of the Great Recession in 2009, the dip into negative real territory out on the long end of the Treasury yield curve in 2011 prompted a rush into gold — a rush which then came to a sudden end in 2013, during the market’s “Taper Tantrum.” During that tantrum, the real 10-Year Treasury yield quickly rose to positive 1% from negative 1% in just a few months, and gold fell alongside bond prices. Yet as sudden as the shift back to positive real rates was, the positive 1% level remained a ceiling for the real 10-Year Treasury rate while the bubble cycle in risk assets repeated a third time.( 不斷一次又一次發生） It remained below that level until its brief peek above it in late 2018. That brief rise above 1% was enough to cause the steep selloff in risk assets into the end of 2018 and bring a premature end to the Fed’s campaign to raise short-term interest rates.

金融海嘯過後2009 年公債殖利率進入短暫負利率時期( 大家搶著買公債), 間接造成其餘投資人去搶買黃金 ( 另一原因是中國大媽搶買 Gold) , 這波公債-黃金避險風潮在2013年劃下休止符, 之後市場先生從海嘯變臉時期過渡到Taper Tantrum( 偶爾發火)時期. 公債短暫幾個月就從 - 1%回升到+ 1%, 金價跟著滑落下來. 而殖利率 1%這個數字此後成為2010 -2018期間的一個天花板, 直到2018年底市場試探的將殖利率衝稍微高於 1%, 沒想到引發股票市場某些資金轉移性賣壓, 提前結束Fed調高短期利率的貨幣政策