海龜7號 - Vistra Corp 發電廠估值 (VST) 核電題材

目前價格估出來134.3, 跟今天123不會差很多, 

Operating income我是用中性偏樂觀去估計

高登模型盈餘成長是1%, 假如設成2%, 價格變成210

海龜9號 Paypal

 

2024  Paypal業績觀察,  打臉2年前負面新聞 

Paypal手續營收年成長率

Merchant Checkout TPV      總成交量	23Q3	23Q4	24Q1	24Q2
Branded        透過Paypal交易	+6%	+5%	+7%	+6%
Unbranded	+32%	+29%	26%	+19%

2024 EPS 預估至少有4塊

2020 當年度是3.54  卻漲到200多塊

Paypal  free cash flow per share 6.4   81 in price as of 11th Oct 2024 

SQ    free cash flow per share 0.88   70 in price as of 11th Oct 2024

Visa  Free Cash Flow per Share 9.27,  250 in price as of 11th Oct 2024

海龜8號 Docusign Inc

Our initial annual guidance expected a lower rate of early renewals in Fiscal 26 as reps increasingly focus on IAM expansion potential. We had anticipated the impact to take place after Q1, but the reduction in early renewals began sooner than forecasted. This resulted in lower-than-expected early renewal billings in Q1. We take responsibility for not fully anticipating the timing of this shift in our guidance.

ServiceTitan, the operating system that powers the trades, and a longtime Docusign customer, is deploying IAM across legal, HR, sales, and procurement, using Docusign Maestro to create time-saving automated workflows and Docusign Navigator to gain greater insight into its business. As part of our growing strategic go-to-market partnership with Microsoft, we’re delivering this IAM solution via the Azure Marketplace.

Within our go-to-market pillar, we continue to drive transformation across three integrated routes now all selling IAM: direct, self-serve, and partner. 

Robbie David Owens

Okay. Perfect. And then our understanding as we lean in a little more aggressively this year, which didn't come to fruition in the first quarter. And I understand the commentary around the timing of some of the cloud migration efforts. Anything else at play? And you did talk about increasing sales capacity without expanding the team. Is that something that you're factoring into the calculus here or something that could lend to upside just in terms of repurposing a lot of that existing sales force?

Allan C. Thygesen

We're not counting on that, but I certainly hope so that over time, that sales capacity will translate into more bookings and billings and revenue. Maybe just -- let me just touch quickly on some of the changes that we made at the beginning of the year to set ourselves up for long-term success. We -- besides the early renewals piece, which really was a minor element of the changes that we made, big changes were we really wanted our sales reps to be able to focus more time to go deeper and sell more broadly into organizations that represented the biggest growth opportunity.

And so we resegmented and changed the portfolios for our sellers and moved a substantial number of customers to a self-serve first model. And so that freed up capacity in effect without additional headcount to let our reps go deeper. We also changed our sales compensation model to emphasize more annualized models and emphasize IAM and so on. And so there were a lot of levers pulled to set ourselves up for, shall we say, a larger deal, more enterprise type of sales motion. That will be a long journey for the company. And -- but we've begun it. I'm very pleased with the early results and how the sales teams are responding to that. And we're feeling like that those were the right changes to make to set us up to really capture the full potential of IAM.



The dollar net retention rate increased slightly to 101%, in line with Q4 and up from 99% in Q1 of 2025. We continue to expect dollar net retention to moderately improve throughout the year based on both gross retention improvement and IAM upsell impact. IAM sales continued to show strong momentum with both IAM deal volume and revenue slightly outpacing our expectations this quarter. IAM's share of total direct deal volume, including upsell deals and new customer deals, increased meaningfully quarter-over-quarter



Joshua Phillip Baer

I was hoping you could provide some context for how much of the double-digit percentage that will be IAM as a percentage of subscription book of business is coming from upsell and net new customers versus that transition from eSignature. Just any context for how accretive or incremental IAM is on the business?


Blake Jeffrey Grayson
Sure. So we're not disclosing expansion rates like that. Obviously, with the book of business that we have with the size of it, $3 billion plus, we have a huge opportunity to be able to provide extra value to our existing customers. So I think that existing installed base, and that is an upsell from what they're doing today because if you recall, the vast, vast majority of the IAM deals that we're doing are expansions of spend because we're providing additional value to customers. But also, we're finding that new customers also are quite interested in it. And it's becoming a much, much larger share of our new deals, our new company deals that we're doing. So it's going to come from both of these things, but I think that it's fair to assume that with the size of the installed base that we currently have, the biggest opportunity we have is with customers that we already do business with.

向上銷售(Up-Selling)是什麼？有什麼用？

向上銷售（Up-Selling）是指在銷售過程中，銷售人員引導顧客購買比原先預計購買產品更高級別、更昂貴或利潤更高的產品或服務。這種銷售技巧的目的是增加每筆交易的銷售額，從而提高整體的利潤，能從多方面達到業績提升效果：

1. 增加平均交易價值：通過鼓勵顧客購買更高價值的商品，可以提高每次購買的平均銷售額。
2. 提高顧客滿意度：如果更高級別的產品能夠更好地滿足顧客的需求，這可能會提高他們對購買的滿意度，進而提升顧客忠誠度。
3. 促進庫存周轉：向上銷售有助於推動更高價位或高利潤產品的銷售，這可以有效管理庫存並促進庫存周轉。
4. 實現銷售目標：對銷售團隊來說，通過向上銷售可以更快地達到銷售目標和提成目標。
5. 提高競爭力：向上銷售可以幫助企業更好地利用其產品線的多樣性，從而與競爭對手相比獲得優勢。

實施向上銷售時，應始終考慮顧客的最佳利益，並且要確保所推薦的產品真正能夠帶來額外的價值，而不是單純為了提高銷售額。如果向上銷售僅僅基於公司的利益，而忽視了顧客需求，則可能損害顧客關係，適得其反。

Docusign    free cash flow per share 4.39    price 69.5 in price as of 11th Oct 2024 

Counterstrike   free cash flow per share 4.43   314.9 in price as of 11th Oct 2024 

https://www.reddit.com/r/LawFirm/comments/149fy8k/is_adobe_esign_sufficient_adobe_esign_vs_docusign/

https://www.docusign.com/vs/docusign-vs-adobe-sign

https://www.gartner.com/reviews/market/electronic-signature/vendor/docusign/product/docusign-esignature/alternatives

DOCU 目前有個最大問題是Standard以及 pro 方案價格將近 Adobe e-signature 兩倍, 會逐漸失去一般客群, 但在高端使用

( 法院証明, 破產清算, 遺產處置) 仍有相當價值

Acrobat Standard costs $12.99 per month per license 

Docusign Standard plans start at $25 per user per month

Acrobat Pro costs $19.99 per month per license.

Docusign  $40 for Business Pro






Anyone using Adobe for e-sign? Have you gotten any pushback? (e.g. opposing counsel, state agencies, or insurance carriers refusing to accept your client's signature)

Currently have Adobe e-sign and Docusign subscriptions. Would like to cancel Docusign since I use Adobe regularly and it has an integrated e-sign feature.

Docusign seems more "legit" because it adds an envelope ID at the top left of every page, a date under each signature, and provides a receipt. Adobe does not seem to have any of these features.

Im in a matter now in which the defendant in a breach of contract matter swapped a page in a contract that had a wet signature. I’m the plaintiff who also happens to be a lawyer. I traced the metadata. Clear and convincing evidence he produced a fraudulent contract. Now he’s being reported to local authorities and

 the FBI for extortion using interstate commerce. So yea- stick to e-signatures to avoid this sort of problem.

Because a hand-signed document can easily be altered, have pages substituted in, or be outright fabricated much easier than a document signed in Docusign or Adobe.

I’m old and always get wet signatures other than fee agreements.

My colleague had a client create a fake email for her spouse so she could sign for her husband. She filed bankruptcy for both of them and he didn’t know until trustee contacted him. Shit hit the fan

I worry about this. At least locally we have a pre-filing meeting rule for attorneys. Trustee asks debtors if they met with their attorney before filing at the 341.

All of our AdobeSign signatures get a date automatically added underneath, but this might be an enterprise setting by the administrator.

I prefer Docusign over AdobeSign, but our company only has Adobe, and the only people who ever complain about it are in countries that either don't accept e-signatures (fair) or distrust e-signatures even though they're legal (annoying).

FWIW, unless you're using DocuSign's advanced features like remote online notary (which I believe other services are starting to offer), contract lifecycle management, templates, or workflows, you're better off with Adobe e-sign. You'll still get the audit trail and other indicia that you would need if the e-signature is challenged in court, and that is the most important thing.

I use Adobe Sign as close to exclusively as I can in my Bankruptcy practice.


Adobe Sign, for the past 5 years, no issues, with either opposing or the court (if you don’t count the bar section meeting discussion that resulted in the practice of supplying the audit trail.)

Until yesterday, when a client (who is an IT security pro) said he didn’t want “sensitive” documents provided to him by any means except our secure portal.

Here are a few things to consider when comparing Adobe eSign to Docusign:

Legality - Both are legally recognized forms of electronic signature under the ESIGN and UETA laws. So from a pure legality standpoint, either should be acceptable.


Industry adoption - Docusign has a larger market share and is likely more familiar/trusted by others you exchange documents with. Adobe eSign may be unknown or questioned more.


Signature security - Both use secure digital signature technology so the signatures themselves are equally valid. Docusign adds some cosmetic elements like envelope ID and date stamps that make it look more like a "traditional" signed document.


Features - Docusign generally has more specialized e-signature focused features like built-in analytics, reminders/notifications, vault storage, pre-fill forms, etc. Adobe eSign is more basic.


Compatibility - Docusign integrates more seamlessly with other legal/office tools like CRM, billing, contracts management systems through their partner ecosystem.

So in summary, while both are legally valid options, Docusign may be less likely to raise questions or objections from others due to its stronger industry presence and reputation as the leader in e-signatures specifically. The extra features and integration options are also a plus. Unless you have a specific price or workflow reason to stay with Adobe eSign, most experts would recommend Docusign for legal use cases. But Adobe could work too if needed.

海龜3號 - Tidewater

Aug 14, 2024 Updated

Henrik Alex

Investing Group Leader

Tidewater: Decent Quarter But Lowered Outlook Disappoints

• Leading offshore service vessel provider Tidewater Inc. reported strong Q2/2024 results, with both top and bottom line results exceeding expectations.
• Revenues of $339.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $139.7 million represented new multi-year highs. The company's average dayrate of $21,130 moved up by 32% year-over-year and 8% sequentially.
• Despite the company's strong second quarter results, management lowered full-year expectations due to several drilling campaigns having been pushed out from the third into the fourth quarter.
• In addition, a combination of higher-than-anticipated dry-docking days and required vessel repositioning will impact Q3 results.
• Considering limited upside from current levels and with Tidewater screening expensive relative to other offshore oil and gas service stocks, I am reiterating my “Hold” rating on the shares.

調整持股, 參與Stockfeel 場景金融募資案

 

5871 中租 賣掉500股

2945 美廉社 賣掉 2,000股

2301 光寶科 賣掉 1,100股 ( 其中100股賣掉資金, 去補回5871中租 100股 )