Dear York,
I hope you had a good week in Taiwan and back to work regularly without too much stress.
In regards to the annual work for investments, I was just checking the message that you sent me. Considering the very unstable market conditions that we are now, perhaps we might need a little bit of help to review the investment allocation from Pacific insurance. Brian seems very busy during these weeks so he is not replying much and also I would like to have your opinion on how to further proceed with investements.
Please let me know what you think.
With My Best Regards
Bob
My workings in reponse
Hi ~ Bob
Firstly, please look at the 3 piece of images, separately New order of Durable goods - Machinery- Electronic goods, which represent the obvious strength back up U.S economic growth in future 1-2 years . It's very clearly that demand for Durable and Machinery act as "V" pattern as evidence of economy reactivated from Mar 2020 collapse
And the demand for Electronic products ( pic3 below) also slowly climb up from 2016 likely to be medium-long term view Computer and electronic products associated with broad variety of components, related to Asia China- Taiwan- Koera supply chain, It's rising demand can bring up the utilization of relevant industry and even indirectly keep the vitality to U.S SaaS economy
Firstly, please look at the 3 piece of images, separately New order of Durable goods - Machinery- Electronic goods, which represent the obvious strength back up U.S economic growth in future 1-2 years . It's very clearly that demand for Durable and Machinery act as "V" pattern as evidence of economy reactivated from Mar 2020 collapse
When Market cycle head into second-half of 2021, the base level of substantial goods have been left up to relatively high, the further consumption for durable goods could be limited, at the meanwhile, with widely Vaccine shot to help to unlock U.S service industry ( entertainment, dining, ) It would boost lots of demand for service to many aspects of living, that take over the Manufacturer sector as the engine to subsequently power US economy ( please remember service sector amounted to 70% US GDP)
But there is still a risk hidden there, If the coming of service activities not strong enough to bring more fire to business activities, on the other hand, the inventory unsold left in warehouse that formely made by manufacturing sector would start to make economy slightly backward for over 6 months ( De-stocking period and stock - clearance) inevitably lead to another crash on stock market.
A comments on investment target in 2021
1.Commodity - Latin America fund
Actually the USD is technically lying in the flat ground in coming 1-2 years ( it's possible not depreciationed anymore) and the expectation of inflation would start to make commodity price to be speculated-up in future1-2 years from now.
Actually the USD is technically lying in the flat ground in coming 1-2 years ( it's possible not depreciationed anymore) and the expectation of inflation would start to make commodity price to be speculated-up in future1-2 years from now.
2.The emerging market
Short- term investment and only 10% money into for the price too high
Before USD officially strengthen enough to turn back the position as 2016's, the emerging market Africa, India, South east Asia, middle east even the Turkey( I like this one) still would be the first choice for foreign capital in 2021-2022
3. China
Before USD officially strengthen enough to turn back the position as 2016's, the emerging market Africa, India, South east Asia, middle east even the Turkey( I like this one) still would be the first choice for foreign capital in 2021-2022
3. China
when market goes down adding 10% money. We have discuss several times on this country, though this broad nation notorious for bribery, riding on someone's coattails, inefficiency of business operation, but their common people consumption still have room to grow and many of big China company are transforming into corporation with matured business, which have stable inland market to run and manage, they are not necessarily to aggresively settle Europe-US market to compete with many big company like google, Philiphs, Honeywell, P&G. They only to take care well of 1.3 trillion population That's enough for them to grow. Thus, you don't have to look down on China value fund, keep at least 10% -20% on it, and you're very possibly got average 8% -10% after 5 years by China value.
4. Singapore - Koera - USA
Singapore surely your first choice now, but little sorry for not any fund the 100% purly targeted to the country on Pacific fundlist. Koera is an attractive one but now price little high. USA still might be a choice if above all selected targets unqualified for your preference ! especially when USD dollars start to recover its old glory, it' will attract more capital choose to transfer money back to USA.
4. Singapore - Koera - USA
Singapore surely your first choice now, but little sorry for not any fund the 100% purly targeted to the country on Pacific fundlist. Koera is an attractive one but now price little high. USA still might be a choice if above all selected targets unqualified for your preference ! especially when USD dollars start to recover its old glory, it' will attract more capital choose to transfer money back to USA.
OK ~ if any question, let's leave to weekends for talks
Best Regards
York
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