"The-second-dark-cloud-of-the-AI-industry" 讀後心得

A Study on AI - Part 1: The Duration of the AI Industry

The-second-dark-cloud-of-the-AI-industry

( 經Roger's note 作者授權同意轉載 )

III. A Wake-Up Call from Economic History: The Overlooked “Technology Time Lag”

If AI is the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” we must look back at history. Many mistakenly believe that as soon as new technology appears, GDP will take off, but economic history tells us the exact opposite.

According to the analysis by Nobel laureates in Economics Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt in their book The Power of Creative Destruction, as well as actual economic data:

The Industrial Revolution: During the 20-year peak of the Industrial Revolution in the UK, the annual GDP growth rate was only about 3.3%.

The IT Revolution: The first transistor was born in the 1950s, but the United States did not welcome high GDP growth of 5% until the 1990s—a full 40 years later.

重點 : 重大科技發明及龐大資本投資 無法立即為GDP帶來立即貢獻


IV. Signals of a Bubble and the Legacy of Infrastructure

Financial markets have begun to smell something unusual. Currently, the corporate bonds issued by tech giants for data center construction amount to approximately $126 billion. Although this accounts for only 5% of the US investment-grade bond market and appears to be in the early stages, this is precisely the signal that a bubble is beginning to accumulate.

Renowned analyst Ben Evans warned, using the cryptocurrency craze as an example: “You cannot draw a straight line on a logarithmic chart and declare that everyone will own a crypto wallet in the future.” Similarly, we cannot linearly deduce that GDP will skyrocket next year simply because AI technology is powerful. 經Roger 授權同意, 轉載

戰友 Roger 私房筆記

 

泰宇 Rogers'note

2025 烏龜翻船的一年 ( 市場總檢討 )

 

從4月底42塊賣掉 CCJ, 隔幾天就像火箭砲衝上去, 為荒腔走板的25年拉開序幕

7月初 Bros 因為巴西關稅課40%,  先被殺一波, 後來留著50%部位Q2業績出爐, 強力反彈追回50%損失.  而後市場又一輪惡意下跌到48, 我終究被嚇跑了, 瞬間從48漲回去 Orz

同時間在20塊買進 CFLT, 抱得很不錯, 直到7月底被殺下來, 短短3天殺了30%, 心態崩潰了, 呼叫戰友Catherine 討抱 + 被她數落幾句

2024從毫無業績, 一直到9月中旬開始有喜訊, 10月大反攻

UPWK, PYPL, DOCU, VST  一直到11 月底, 短短3個月帳戶進帳 + 25%

進入2025年 一開始市場在1月份起跌,  反彈上來時抱著 DOCU 沒賣掉就是個錯誤

( 心理貪著那 10,000 USD 收益, 少掉3000變成 7000, 不甘心)

海龜11號 Dutch Brothers

 

SBUX  2018  EPS 3.22    股價85

BROS 未來5年   EPS 2.4   股價 75 ( 預估)

Dutch brother 估值

Starbuck's rival epand to breakfast offering

2026 市場教戰守則

 

Nivida晶片高耗電量, 美國電力供應輸中國一個級距

House market the leading sign of getting warm !?

Two alternative investment Buffet consider increase in coming decades

美企聲請破產家數，創下2010以來同期新高

Zerohedge報導，美國企業破產潮持續擴大，無論中小企業或大型企業的聲請件數皆快速攀升，為大衰退以來罕見。分析人士指出，若經濟環境在未來數月仍未改善，2026 年恐將面臨更加混亂的局面。

中國逐漸成為風電能源霸權, 超越美國

警訊 1

警訊 2

貼文

海龜9號 Paypal

 

PSP 名詞解釋
Our business is subject to complex and changing laws, rules, regulations, policies, licensing schemes, and legal interpretations in the markets in which we offer services directly or through partners, including, but not limited to, those governing: banking, credit, deposit taking, cross-border and domestic money transmission, prepaid access, foreign currency exchange, privacy, data protection, data governance, cybersecurity, banking secrecy, digital payments, cryptocurrency, payment services (including payment processing and settlement services), lending, fraud detection, consumer protection, antitrust and competition, economic and trade sanctions, anti-money laundering, and counter-terrorist financing.


Transaction Margin Dollars (TM$) represents the profit PayPal makes on payment transactions after deducting direct costs, such as transaction losses and processing expenses. This metric is used internally and in public financial statements to measure the profitability of the company's core operation


PayPal spots ‘softer’ consumer spending

The digital payments pioneer pointed to consumers’ smaller purchases in the third quarter, and sees the trend continuing.

“Overall, we have seen relatively consistent growth in the number of checkout transactions, but basket sizes or average order value has decreased,” said Jamie Miller, who is the company’s chief financial and operating officer. “We’ve observed this trend continuing through October.”


2025 Q2 earning call , addressed by Alex :
Moving to our PSP business. I want to reflect on one of my first earnings calls, where we shared our plan to reset our largest merchant relationships to price our services to the value we deliver. The consequence of that reset was pressure on growth in exchange for long-term profitability. Now we are on the other side of that, and can confidently say that our strategy worked. We maintained our customers, and we are having more strategic conversations and relationships with them. And most importantly, we are now growing our Braintree TPV again, and expect an acceleration in the back half of the year. This is an important inflection point, and I am really proud of the team for their execution.

Key to this strategy has been investing in and scaling our strong suite of value-added services. These services are helping position PayPal as a trusted innovative partner in this evolving commerce landscape and have transformed the margin profile of our PSP business.

Let me share one example. Payouts is one of the value-added services that is growing rapidly. Some of the world's top travel, mobility and social commerce platforms already use Hyperwallet to manage and distribute funds to hosts, drivers and creators globally. Most recently, our payouts capabilities were a strategic enabler in our landmark partnerships with the Big 12 and Big Ten college athletic conferences that I mentioned earlier. Hyperwallet enables the conferences to provide student athletes with rapid access to revenue share payments that can be sent directly to their PayPal or Venmo accounts, where they can then spend and send the money instantly. For small businesses, our priority remains empowering merchants with the tools they need to manage and accelerate their growth. We're steadily migrating more transactions on to PayPal Complete Payments. PPCP enables SMBs to easily access our latest online branded checkout and new products like Fastlane. As of today, over half of SMB volume flows through this platform, a notable improvement since last quarter. Our recent expansion of PPCP into Singapore further extends our global reach. We also continue to deepen our relationships with the most popular platforms where SMBs manage and grow their businesses. Just last week, we announced an expanded partnership with Wix, that gives merchants access to our full suite of payment tools, seamlessly integrates into Wix Payments to fuel sales growth. When our small business customers succeed, the relationship with PayPal deepens, and we remain committed to expanding access to the tools and capital that fuel that growth.




While we are pleased with our progress, what's even more exciting is the foundation we are building to sustain and accelerate this growth in the years ahead. TM dollars growth had multiple sources in the quarter, including strong credit performance, branded checkout flow-through, improvements in PSP profitability, and Venmo. We drove operating leverage through a combination of top line growth and cost discipline, as we remix less productive spend into product, tech and marketing.


Turning to PSP, which spans both large enterprise and SMB processing, as well as parts of our vast portfolio like payouts, invoicing, and point-of-sale solutions, volume grew 2%, in line with the first quarter. Our focus on prioritizing healthy, quality growth within our Braintree business continues to deliver meaningful TM dollars improvement.



We are capitalizing on untapped opportunities in PSP and SMB. At the same time, we are actively shaping the future of commerce through our work in AI, ads and crypto. And our velocity of innovation is only accelerating. I am more excited than ever about the future we're building.

2024  Paypal業績觀察,  打臉2年前負面新聞 

Paypal手續營收年成長率

Merchant Checkout TPV      總成交量	23Q3	23Q4	24Q1	24Q2
Branded        透過Paypal交易	+6%	+5%	+7%	+6%
Unbranded	+32%	+29%	26%	+19%

2024 EPS 預估至少有4塊

2020 當年度是3.54  卻漲到200多塊

Paypal  free cash flow per share 6.4   81 in price as of 11th Oct 2024 

SQ    free cash flow per share 0.88   70 in price as of 11th Oct 2024

Visa  Free Cash Flow per Share 9.27,  250 in price as of 11th Oct 2024

Gartner Magic Quadrant for Enterprise Backup and Recovery Software Solutions

 

5 August 2024

By Michael Hoeck, Jason Donham, and 2 more

I&O leaders are challenged to protect and recover critical business applications and data from multiple threats. The enterprise backup and recovery software solutions market is responding with more workload coverage, ransomware recovery capabilities and delivery models, and focus on simplicity.

Strategic Planning Assumptions

By 2028, 75% of enterprises will use a common solution for backup and recovery of data residing on-premises and in cloud infrastructure, compared with 20% in 2024.

By 2028, 75% of enterprises will prioritize backup of SaaS applications as a critical requirement, compared with 15% in 2024.

By 2028, 90% of enterprise backup and recovery products will include embedded technology to detect and identify cyberthreats, compared with fewer than 45% in 2024.

By 2028, 75% of large enterprises will adopt backup as a service (BaaS), alongside on-premises tools, to back up cloud and on-premises workloads, compared with 15% in 2024.

By 2028, 75% of enterprise backup and recovery products will integrate generative AI (GenAI) to improve management and support operations, compared with fewer than 5% in 2024.