Retailed electricity market 研究

We develop forward-looking estimates of the range in growth rates for key cost-related and non-cost-related rate drivers to better understand how they could affect retail rate growth for a generic U.S. investor-owned and vertically integrated utility.

Cost related: utilities’ capital expenditures, non-fuel operations and
maintenance (O&M) expenses, and fuel and purchased power costs

Non cost related : retail sales, peak demand, and customers


we assumed compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for each of the rate drivers and bounded them with a range of Low, Medium, and High values to characterize the potential variability

Assuming all cost-related rate drivers continue to grow at their me dium CAGR, the retail rate components with the highest CAGRs are associated with CapEx. Specifically, the rate component for transmission CapEx grows by 9.1%/year, for distribution CapEx by 8.7%/year

海龜3號 - Tidewater

Aug 14, 2024 Updated

Henrik Alex

Investing Group Leader

Tidewater: Decent Quarter But Lowered Outlook Disappoints

• Leading offshore service vessel provider Tidewater Inc. reported strong Q2/2024 results, with both top and bottom line results exceeding expectations.
• Revenues of $339.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $139.7 million represented new multi-year highs. The company's average dayrate of $21,130 moved up by 32% year-over-year and 8% sequentially.
• Despite the company's strong second quarter results, management lowered full-year expectations due to several drilling campaigns having been pushed out from the third into the fourth quarter.
• In addition, a combination of higher-than-anticipated dry-docking days and required vessel repositioning will impact Q3 results.
• Considering limited upside from current levels and with Tidewater screening expensive relative to other offshore oil and gas service stocks, I am reiterating my “Hold” rating on the shares.

海龜10號 - 2301光寶科

 

光寶科年初計劃

股科醫生 - 光寶科技

2024 U.S Housing market 研究

 

Housing Market Predictions For 2024: When Will Home Prices Be Affordable Again?

 

The bid price refers to the highest price a buyer will pay for a security. The ask price refers to the lowest price a seller will accept for a security. The difference between these two prices is known as the spread; the smaller the spread, the greater the liquidity of the given security.

製造業 - 景氣循環

由於過去二十年來，全球工業生產的上下游逐漸分工明確，上游端的製造業通常位於新興市場國家，如中國、東南亞等地區，因此製造業循環向上時，新興市場通常都會因此受益；反之，製造業循環向下時，新興市場表現則不如成熟市場。

通過觀察，製造業循環約以三至四年為一個週期。例如以 2015 年的經驗，當時在美國結束購債、轉向升息，以中國為首的新興市場和美利差收窄、美元升值，引發熱錢外流，疊加油價崩跌，製造業對景氣前景悲觀，且資金收緊下企業看壞終端需求， 2014 下半年起製造業新訂單不斷減少，企業進行去化庫存，最終 2015 年新興市場股市大幅修正。之後隨著庫存低檔，景氣落底反彈支撐需求，企業回補庫存，製造業有所表現，直至 2017 年，中美貿易紛爭引發不確定性再度上升，再度進入下一個製造業循環。

海龜8號 Snowflake VS Oracle

 

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. Our products and services include enterprise applications and infrastructure offerings that are delivered worldwide through a variety of flexible and interoperable IT deployment models.

Accordingly, we offer choice and flexibility to our customers and facilitate the product, service and deployment combinations that best suit our customers’ needs. Our customers include businesses of many sizes, government agencies, educational institutions and resellers that we market and sell to directly through our worldwide sales force

 

for example, a global cloud applications developer that utilizes Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) to power its software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings; a multi-national financial institution that runs its banking applications using Oracle Exadata Cloud@Customer; and a global consumer products company that leverages Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning for its accounting processes, risk management, supply chain and financial planning functions

科技業不僅正在減少招聘, 他們要使工程師滅絕

 

Tech giants aren't just cutting thousands of jobs — they're making them extinct

Apr 28, 2023  Business Insider

• Tech companies have been slashing thousands of jobs.
• Thanks to the rise of AI, many of those jobs might never come back.
• That has far-reaching implications for tech workers and those seeking to work in the industry.

Big Tech is liking the look of its new leaner shape.

Companies from Meta to Microsoft to Salesforce have cut jobs in recent months, often in the pursuit of efficiency and increased profit margins. By some estimates, more than 250,000 tech workers have been laid off since the start of 2022.

 

Block.In ( SQ ) 觀察

 

Q1 2021 Earnings Call

Question :

Thank you so much. Really impressive acceleration here. I wanted to ask if there's a way to maybe unpack that acceleration. I know reopenings probably played a role, stimulus probably played a role and maybe you're seeing some early returns on your stepped-up investments, Amrita, like you just mentioned there.

So is it possible to maybe unpack it that way? And I think it might help us think about the go forward as well. Thanks.



Answer :
With reopenings, I think you can see that most clearly in the stellar retention figures that we called out, we've been really encouraged here with the improvements that we've seen in recent months. When you look at GPV retention, existing cohorts of sellers have rebounded to around pre-pandemic levels. We're looking at that sort of two-year retention trend to normalize for the impact of COVID looking from '19 to '21. And in March and April of this year, GPV from our existing cohorts was nearly back to their 2019 levels.

Remember, this is a notable improvement from last year when the world was sort of discombobulated and our GPV retention was down about 40%. It improved to down 10% in the back half of last year, and we're now seeing back to very close to where they were in 2019, and on a gross-profit basis, actually seeing positive retention for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2019. So what we are seeing there, again, is very much due to both strength in reopenings, as well as strength in the new cohorts that we're bringing on. Our most recent cohorts from 2019 and '18 are showing better retention compared to older cohorts, we think, partly attributable to the greater mix of larger and more omnichannel sellers.

Affirm - But now pay later evoluted to " Securitization "

Affirm struggles to convince investors of fintech bona fides

Buy now pay later’ group becomes more reliant on loans amid plummeting share price. Max Levchin founded Affirm Holdings in the belief that younger people were more open to borrowing from Silicon Valley start-ups than established lenders. “Consumers, particularly millennials and Gen Z, have lost trust in financial institutions,” Levchin told investors last year, and “increasingly prefer more flexible and innovative digital payment solutions in lieu of traditional credit payment options”. His vision has made San Francisco-based Affirm one of the biggest “buy now, pay later” companies, which allow shoppers to obtain unsecured instalment loans when they buy clothes, electronics and other goods online. Quarterly results due on Thursday are expected to show a net loss of $156mn on $345mn of revenue, according to a Bloomberg poll of analysts. Some say Affirm bears a closer resemblance to a traditional financial institution than its digital sheen would suggest.



“These kind of hybrid financial technology stocks, they kind of trade like tech stocks when they’re growing really fast and the financial side of their business doesn’t cause any problems,” said Chris Brendler, an analyst at D A Davidson. “But if you start having higher losses or funding problems, that’s when they start to perform like financials.” Affirm’s pitch to retailers has been simple: by allowing the customers to split up payments for merchandise, sometimes without interest, they will sell more products. Retailers pay Affirm “merchant discount fees”, effectively a commission of a few percentage points of a purchase price. In 2020 nearly 60 % of the company’s revenue was derived from such fees. Affirm’s largest merchant during the pandemic was Peloton, the stationary bike maker whose sales are now in decline. But Affirm’s business mix has begun to shift after it signed partnerships with large retailers such as Amazon and Walmart — companies with enough heft to avoid having to pay merchant discount fees. Instead, the majority of Affirm’s revenue is now coming from its function as a lender: by selling loans either through securitisations or to third-party buyers such as insurance companies, or by earning interest income for the assets that it keeps on its own balance sheet. In its most recent reported quarter, more than half of the revenue came from interest income and gains on the sale of loans.



Affirm said it was still committed to growing its fee-generating businesses as part of a strategy to build “a menu of different products to meet consumer and merchant needs across cart sizes, categories, and payment terms”.  Affirm said. Unlike a traditional bank, Affirm does not hold consumer deposits and instead relies on “warehouse” lines of credit. 

AFFIRM 公司研究

Our view: While the Apple announcement had been previously speculated, it does officially mark Apple’s arrival in the BNPL space and brings incremental competition to the industry. Apple's primary benefit will come from the distribution advantage of its Apple Pay product, which is accepted at 85% of US retailers and any in-store location that accepts contactless payments (according to Apple). Additionally, the millions of US consumers who use Apple Pay will be prompted with a BNPL offer on all Apple Pay purchases after signing up for the

service. With that said, we continue to like Affirm’s competitive positioning as Affirm offers a broader set of offerings, including Split Pay, 0% APR loans, and interest-bearing loans (long and shorter duration). This gives Affirm flexibility with merchants and consumers who need different credit offerings as well as the
most levers to pull as interest rates rise to effectively offset higher funding costs. Apple’s announcement indicates it will strictly be a 6-week zero-interest offering, which is most similar to Block's Afterpay, which also exclusively offers a 0% APR service that is paid back over 6 weeks.

2022 美國民生消費 研究 ( 通膨情境下 )

 

1. Higher fuel costs could be a big headwind for retailers.

2. Erratic不定期規則 receipts of General Merchandise inventory impacted sales and margins 供應鏈阻塞, 零售業倉儲進貨變得很不穩定, 計算期末存貨困難, 會計影響gross margin

3.Mix shift to Grocery, exacerbated by higher food inflation, is driving gross margin contraction. Food at Home inflation is running at ~11% vs overall CPI at ~8%. As a result, even if actual consumption is unchanged, consumers' spending mix is naturally shifting to Grocery, which is a lower margin category. For low-income consumers in particular, food inflation is eating into discretionary dollars, which could be exacerbating the dilutive mix shift. WMT called out this dynamic as a driver of gross margin contraction in Q1 against a reasonably healthy (albeit inflation-driven) sales backdrop. We would expect to see a similar mix shift and consequent margin contraction at DG and DLTR given their higher exposure to low income shoppers, 低價零售店業績成長, 但毛利仍然微降 and potentially TGT as well given the degree of inflation (despite TGT's higher-income core customer)

4.The first major indication in our coverage of the low-income consumer feeling pinched. Related to point #3, the degree to which WMT's merchandise mix shift toward Grocery suggests at least some of WMT's customers are pulling back on discretionary purchases, particularly as food inflation (and other inflationary pressures like gas prices) exerts more pressure on low-income wallets. MS Economists believe low-income consumers have entirely exhausted their excess savings from stimulus; we expect this cohort 相同特徵 to further pull back on discretionary spending through the year, which is a negative read-through for retailers with low-income consumer exposure and some discretionary mix (including DG, DLTR, FIVE, and OLLI).

5. WMT took significant share in Grocery. WMT US Grocery comps were up low double digits, well ahead of key industry benchmarks including Nielsen data (+MSD%) and Census Retail Sales (+HSD%).WMT 股價表現超越產業指標 It's also a negative read-through for other consumables retailers, in our view. The positive is WMT's high absolute growth rate reflects persistent inflation, which should benefit all retailers. But that WMT is taking share off a large base 這句慢慢蒐集資料 - 檢視 (we estimate WMT took ~$6b of the ~$20b of incremental category growth in its fiscal Q1) is a less bullish read-through to other consumables retailers and conventional grocers like KR and ACI, though it's not clear exactly where WMT's share gains are coming from.

(Bloomberg) -- Walmart Inc. tumbled the most in almost 35 years after cutting its full-year profit forecast due to inflationary pressures, especially in food and fuel.


The worsening outlook shook Wall Street’s faith in Walmart’s ability to cope with higher costs for merchandise, transportation and labor. The results also underscored the pressure on US consumers as soaring prices send sentiment to the lowest in a decade. Walmart and peers already were facing tough comparisons to early 2021, when federal stimulus payments bolstered household spending during the coronavirus pandemic.


Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon set the stage for more price increases at the world’s largest retailer, saying the company would seek to balance customers’ needs with the goal of delivering profit growth. His goal is to raise prices while seeking to stay below competitors and limiting the price bumps on entry-level food items.

“Price leadership is especially important right now,” McMillon told analysts. He pledged to vowed to put the disappointing quarter “behind us and have a strong year.”

Earnings are likely to drop about 1% this year, the retailer said in a statement Tuesday, abandoning its previous forecast for a mid-single-digit gain. In the first quarter, adjusted profit sank to $1.30 a share, below the lowest of 29 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

While revenue growth remained robust, U.S. sales of groceries accounted for much of the growth -- and they tend to have lower margins than general merchandise, sales of which fell. The results are a “clear negative,” Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge, said in a note to clients.

“One of the world’s largest and most sophisticated companies proved unable to escape the same corporate margin pressures hurting most firms and even the sales performance isn’t as good as it looks,” he said. That’s because revenue was “driven mostly by food inflation while the discretionary merchandise category slumped 10-11%,” he said.


The operating backdrop has become increasingly complex,” Edward Kelly, an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co., said in a report in which he referred to Walmart by its ticker symbol. “Consumers are starting to make tougher choices, and while WMT is well positioned for trade down as a value player, it needs to take more price.”



Surging fuel prices -- spurred in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine -- pushed up costs faster than Walmart was able to pass them along to consumers last quarter, McMillon told analysts. He also called out labor challenges and temporary overstaffing due to Covid, higher costs for containers and storage, excess inventory, and a shift in spending away from general merchandise, which typically has higher profit margins than groceries.

Lowering estimates and SOTP-backed PT to $156 (from $167). We are lowering our F'23/F'24 EPS estimates by ~5% to $6.40/$6.90 (from $6.75/$7.30 prior). Our F'23 EPS estimate is in-line with updated guidance and embeds +3.5% WMT US comps, ~4% net sales growth, ~5 bps ( 0.01%) of total gross margin contraction, ~15 bps
of S&GA leverage, and -1% EBIT/EPS growth. In F'24 we model +3% WMT UScomps, ~3.5% net sales growth, ~5 bps ( 0.01%) of EBIT margin expansion, and ~5.5%/~8% EBIT/EPS growth. Our SOTP-backed PT falls $11 or ~6.5%, with $5 driven by our updated estimates and SOTP assumptions, $5 from lower multiples on our US brick & mortar and Sam's Club EBITDA estimates, and $1 from mark to market JD.com numbers. Our PT implies ~22.5x our F'24e EPS of $6.90, which we estimate is ~20x on a "core" basis (ie excluding growth investments like Flipkart). We stay OW rated with ~19% upside to our $156 PT. 

👆 以上這段未來想估值 WMT, 參考用

SOTP is the process of determining what the individual divisions of a company would be worth if they 
were spun off or bought by a different company. SOTP enables a company to establish a useful measure of its value which can be highly relevant in the case of a hostile takeover or a restructuring.

Home Depot

In ’22 we forecast comps of ~3% (in-line with raised guidance), 5 bps of gross margin contraction as freight/supply chain pressures are partially offset by HD taking price, ~15 bps of SG&A leverage (~3% SG&A/ft growth), and ~20 bps of EBIT
margin expansion (~4% EBIT growth). Alongside ~$1.6b of net interest expense, a 24.6% tax rate, and ~$8.3b of buybacks, this produces EPS of $16.55 (+6.5% y/y, slightly above the guided mid-single-digit increase). There could be upside to our ‘22 forecast. If HD’s qualitative commentary on elevated home price appreciation
driving Home Improvement demand is accurate and the business holds its 3Y geometric stacks at the current run rate (up in the low 40% range) 問題經濟數據 home decoration, furnishings 消費下降 , this would imply mid-single-digit comps in '22. Assuming similar flow through, ~$17 in ’22 EPS could be possible (a high-single-digit y/y increase).

Square 's Crypto land scape

 

Dorsey’s case for bitcoin


As of the quarter ended in March, bitcoin still only accounted for roughly 5% of Block’s gross profits. But executives are betting on crypto as a secular trend in which Block could be well positioned. Dorsey described it as the “open standard for global money transmission” and said it will allow Block’s “entire business to move faster globally.”

Block first started offering bitcoin trading through the Cash App, and the company holds it on its balance sheet as an alternative to cash. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down more than 50% from its high and has struggled to regain its value so far this year.

Block’s crypto businesses have expanded to a bitcoin hardware wallet, a bitcoin-mining business, and an open-source business called TBD for developers. On top of that, there’s an independent, bitcoin-focused business within Block called Spiral.

Dorsey is not as bullish on other cryptocurrencies and said the “internet requires a currency native to itself, and looking at the entire ecosystem of technologies to fill this role, it’s clear that bitcoin is currently the only candidate.”

Still, Block’s CFO, Ahuja said the company is outperforming its peers on profitability. Block released updated profit margins Wednesday — an increasingly important metric as investors prioritize the bottom line over growth.

Adjusted profit margins for the Square side of the business last year were 34%, and they were 12% for Cash App, according to the company. On the pure-growth side, Cash App now has 46 million monthly active users and 80 million annual actives as of March.

BNPL ( Buy now pay later ) 趨勢

 

Upstart Shares Crash After a Big Preliminary Miss, JMP Cuts to Market Perform  8 July 2022

The downturn of Macroeconomy lead to the money-striction on Banks 

The Global Digital Payment Market is expected to reach USD$ 12.55 Trillion by 2027, grow with a CAGR of 10.9% ( some report state reach USD 15.27 trillion by 2027, grow with a CAGR of 12.38% ) . For years, the market has been haunting for a payment solution that delivers a better customer experience.

by 2025, BNPL will account for more than 12% of total ecommerce. The Kaleido study suggests that BNPL spend via mobile will grow at more than 16% CAGR until 2025

有人指出 BNPL sales expected to more than double between 2021 and 2026, roughly 20% CAGR  annually

in Southeast Asia at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of between 15% and 20% over the next five to ten years

Measures to Stop the Debt Trap
At Australia’s Afterpay, customers are barred from using its services after they miss a payment. According to the company, 95% of its transactions globally are paid back on time, and late fees contribute less than 14% of its total income

Another crucial aspect of the performance of any lending entity is its delinquency/default rate. Here’s an analysis of the default rates of some of the larger BNPL providers across regions: These numbers resemble credit card delinquency rates—hovering between 1.5% and 2.4% over the past one year

Paypal 的 BNPL ( Buy now pay later ) 追蹤

PayPal has now staked a claim for Paidy, a Japanese BNPL player with 6M members. In March, Paidy had raised JPY 13B from George Soros, one of the largest fundraises by a private company in Japan. Visa is also one of its backers, along with trading house Itochu Corp. Paidy is being valued at $2.7B by PayPal, and the deal should be completed by Q4. 

Thus far, PayPal has been servicing its 4.3M active Japanese accounts, focusing on cross-border e-commerce payments for overseas products. PayPal’s narrow focus in Japan thus far shouldn’t come as a surprise. Japan is the third-largest e-commerce market globally, with online shopping volumes more than tripling over the last decade to over $200B.

With the Paidy acquisition, PayPal is now positioning itself for the domestic payments market in Japan. Its economic superpower tag notwithstanding, Japan still sees two-thirds of its population using cash to make payments. As payment mode shifts to digital, Paidy is right there to grab a share.

Digital payment industry 追蹤 ( 一 )

先了解一下支付運作過程

Digital payment process : a quick look

ABC's Payment value chain

Digital payment 的基本架構& 專有名詞 ( Paypal 為例 )

Transaction expense is primarily composed of the costs related to a customer’s funding source of payment. These costs include fees paid to payment processors and other financial institutions when we draw funds from a customer’s credit or debit card, bank account, or other funding source they have stored intheir digital wallet

We refer to the allocation of funding sources used by our consumers as our “funding mix.” The cost of funding a transaction with a credit ordebit card is generally higher than the cost of funding a transaction from a bank or through internal sources such as a PayPal or Venmo account balance or our consumer credit products. As we expand the availability and presentation of alternative funding sources to our customers, our funding mix may change, which could increase or decrease our transaction expense rate




Our transaction expense rate is impacted bychanges in product mix, merchant mix, regional mix, funding mix, and fees paid to payment processors and other financial institutions

Transaction expense increased by $2.4 billion, or 30%, in 2021 compared to 2020 due primarily to an increase in TPV of 33%. The decrease in transaction expenserate in 2021 compared to 2020 was due primarily to a decline in transaction expense rates associated with both our core PayPal and Braintree products, offset by anincrease in the share of volume associated with our Braintree products




Transaction and credit losses

Transaction losses include the expense associated with our buyer and seller protection programs, fraud, and chargebacks. Credit losses include the losses associated with our merchant and consumer loans receivable portfolio. Beginning in 2020, these losses are based on current expected credit losses. Our transaction and credit losses fluctuate depending on many factors, including TPV, product mix, current and projected macroeconomic conditions including unemployment rates,merchant insolvency events, changes to and usage of our customer protection programs, the impact of regulatory changes, and the credit quality of loans receivable arising from transactions funded with our credit products for consumers and loans and advances to merchants.

Transaction losses were $1.2 billion and $1.1 billion for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, reflecting an increase of $18 million, or 2%,year-over-year. Transaction loss rate (transaction losses divided by TPV) was 0.09%, 0.12%, and 0.15% for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020, and 2019,respectively. The increase in transaction losses was due primarily to growth in TPV, partially offset by benefits realized from continued risk mitigation strategies,which also contributed to a decrease in our transaction loss rate over the same period. The duration and severity of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related global economic conditions remain unknown. Any negative impacts on macroeconomic conditions could increase the risk of merchant bankruptcy,insolvency, business failure, or other business interruption, which may adversely impact our transaction losses, particularly for merchants that sell goods or services in advance of the date of their delivery or use.

Net charge-off ,  Loss reserve

來看一下什麼是Loan loss reserve  ! 

What Is Loan Loss Reserve? 

Loan loss reserves (LLRs) are types of insurance and credit enhancement that help banks and lenders mitigate estimated losses on loans in the event of defaults or nonpayments. Should borrowers default on their loan, banks might use loan loss reserve funds to alleviate these losses.
How Often Are Loan Loss Reserves Calculated?

Loan loss reserves are revised quarterly. Should an increase in the balance occur, it is called a loan loss provision. A decrease in the balance, however, is referred to as a net charge-off.

Loan Loss Reserve Accounting Example

Bank XYZ has made $10,000,000 of loans to various companies and individuals. Bank XYZ works very hard to ensure that it lends only to people who are able to repay their loans in full and on time. However, some will inevitably default, fall behind, or even need to renegotiate their loan payments.

Bank XYZ knows this and estimates that 1% of its loans (i.e. $100,000) will probably never be paid. This $100,000 estimate is recorded as Bank XYZ’s reserve for loan losses and is entered a negative number on the asset portion of its balance sheet.

If Bank XYZ decides to write all (or a portion) of a loan off, it will remove the loan from its asset balance while also removing the amount of the write-off from its loan loss reserve. The amount deducted from the loan loss reserve may be tax-deductible for Bank XYZ.

What Is Loan Loss Reserve?

繼續看Paypal 財報注釋

The benefit in the year ended December 31, 2021 was attributable to the net release of reserves for loans receivable due to improvements in both current and projected macroeconomic conditions, including lower projected unemployment rates, as well as improvements in the credit quality of loans outstanding, partially offset by provisions for originations during the period. Allowances for our merchant and consumer portfolios included qualitative adjustments which took into account continued volatility with respect to macroeconomic conditions, as well as uncertainty around the financial health of our merchant borrowers, including uncertainty around the effectiveness of loan modification programs made available to merchants. The credit losses in the year ended December 31, 2020 were primarily associated with an increase in provisions for our loans receivable portfolio resulting from a reserve build driven by a sharp deterioration inmacroeconomic projections reflecting the anticipated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and provisions associated with originations, both of which significantly increased our then current expected credit losses, and to a lesser extent, changes in credit quality during the period. The increase in provisions associated with macroeconomic projections in the year ended December 31, 2020 included qualitative adjustments to account for the impact of limitations in our expected credit loss models resulting from the extreme fluctuations in both the actual and projected macroeconomic conditions during the period as well as to incorporate varying degrees of merchant performance in the current environment and expected performance in future periods. The consumer loans and interest receivable balance as of December 31, 2021 and 2020 was $3.8 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, representing a year-over-year increase of 77% driven by growth of our installment credit products in international markets and the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, growth of PayPal Credit ininternational markets. 


The net charge-off rate at December 31, 2020 benefited from payment holidays provided by the Company as a part of our COVID-19 payment relief initiatives.We offer merchant finance products for certain small and medium-sized businesses, which we refer to as our merchant finance offerings. Total merchant loans, advances, and interest and fees receivable outstanding, net of participation interest sold, as of both December 31, 2021 and 2020 were approximately $1.4billion. Approximately 82% and 8% of our merchant receivables outstanding as of December 31, 2021 were due from merchants in the U.S. and U.K, as compared to approximately 81% and 10% as of December 31, 2020, respectively

The increase in the percent of current merchant receivables, decrease in percent of merchant receivables greater than 90 days outstanding, and decrease in the net charge-off rate for merchant receivables at December 31, 2021 as compared to December 31, 2020 were primarily due to the charge-off of accounts that experienced financial difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the prior year as well as improved performance in the current year partially attributableto the below mentioned modifications to the acceptable risk parameters including tightening of eligibility terms. Beginning in the third quarter of 2020, we granted certain merchants loan modifications intended to provide them with financial relief and help enable us tomitigate losses. The associated loans and interest receivable have been treated as troubled debt restructurings due to the borrowers experiencing financial difficulty and significant changes in their loan structure, including repayment terms and/or fee and rate structure. Modifications to the acceptable risk parameters of our credit products in 2020 in response to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the implementation of a number of risk mitigation strategies, including reduction of maximum loan size, tightening eligibility terms, and a shift from automated to manual underwriting of loans and advances. These changes in acceptable risk parameters resulted in a decrease in originations in 2020 as compared to prepandemic levels. We continue to evaluate and modify our acceptable risk parameters in response to the changing macroeconomic environment and such changes in2021 have resulted in a gradual increase in originations over the past nine months. While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic environmentremains uncertain, the longer and more severe the pandemic, the more likely it may have a material adverse impact on our borrowing base, which is primarily comprised of small and medium-sized merchants. For additional information, see “Note 11—Loans and Interest Receivable” in the notes to the consolidated financial statements, and “Item 1A. Risk Factors—Our credit products expose us to additional risks” included in this Form 10-K.

Analysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down 這應該是Ark 木頭姐大舉買 Square 原因

据悉，近日，美国移动支付公司Square表示，将通过290亿美元的全股票形式交易，收购澳大利亚金融科技支付公司Afterpay，向消费贷款领域扩张。交易完成后，预计Afterpay持有合并后公司约18.5%的股份。

　　这一消息提振了Affirm股价，可能是因为猜测该公司可能成为收购目标。Affirm美股周一收盘涨14.90%，报64.71美元。

　　对于Square与Afterpay的合并，Max Levchin表示该交易“是一个强有力的声明”，即支付处理的“世界正在改变”。他表示：“信用卡将成为这笔交易的输家。”此外，他没有直接回答有关潜在追求者的问题，称他无法预测，但指出Affirm一直是收购方

加密货币方面，Max Levchin还暗示该公司可能正在考虑接受加密货币，称Affirm将“去商家想去的地方”。该公司目前暂不接受比特币，但Max Levchin认为加密货币正在“过渡到主流”。Max Levchin称不想“预先宣布”任何事情，但他确实表示，随着对比特币和其他加密货币接受程度不断上升，Affirm将“拭目以待”

開始算 Paypal 的 Market share ( 一 )

2016 Market share :  Blue color 82.9%

2021 Market share :  Blue color 49.9%( source from Stastia)

After Anaplan, which SaaS company will private equity target next? 經過一陣大跌, SaaS 是潛在併購目標 !?

經過一陣大跌, SaaS是潛在併購目標  原文鏈結

We could be in for a period of aggressive deal-making   

March 22, 2022

Last night, private equity firm Thoma Bravo said it agreed to acquire Anaplan for $10.7 billion. The financial planning software company’s stock has declined sharply in the last six months, which likely gave the PE firm a chance to pounce.

 

The stock market hasn’t been kind to SaaS companies in recent months, which makes us wonder if we’re seeing the beginning of a trend of private equity taking aim at vulnerable SaaS firms.

 

To answer that, let’s quickly unpack the Anaplan transaction and better understand if Thoma Bravo is paying a premium for this company. From there, we’ll be able to get an idea of how much private equity types are willing to shell out for modern tech companies.

 

Afterward, we’ll apply what we’ve gleaned to a host of public SaaS companies that could find themselves answering inbound calls from other private equity concerns. Don’t forget that private equity is richer than it has ever been in terms of available dry powder, and that money could be looking for a target.

 

Cameco - Uranium

 

Suppy - Demand deficit is continuing, because the numbers of largest Uranium mines are running out of ore, 2 of them in Australia is closed, vast Uranium producer in Kazakhstan by the nature of deposit, they have a depletion tail, the rate of production from big deposit start to decrease. The gap of Suppy - Demand would be widen further

1. World largest economy- USA committed to carbon neutral by 2050

2 The growth of electricty itself in "electricfication" of everything

in foreseeable future that economy is transforming into digital pattern, also for "electrification" of transport

3. China have big potential for Uranium consumption by 2040

Uranium Has That Healthy Glow Again

Uranium’s future demand growth is hard to predict, but a couple of years’ worth of supply discipline has provided reason for optimism

It has been just over a decade since the Fukushima disaster and the nuclear-fuel industry is cautiously betting prospects for its products have finally recovered.

Some of the optimism can already be seen in the share price of Canadian company Cameco, CCJ +2.39% one of the largest miners of uranium behind No. 1 producer Kazatomprom, a state-run company in Kazakhstan. Cameco’s U.S.-listed shares have risen almost 180% over the past year, to levels not seen since 2014.

The last time Cameco saw year-over-year net income growth was 2015, when the spot price of uranium oxide hovered above $35 a pound for most of the year. Since then, the commodity’s price has mostly stayed below $30 a pound, though it seems to be recovering quickly. As of Monday, the spot price was $29.60 a pound, up 7.3% in one week, according to data from nuclear fuel market research firm UxC. Uranium is mostly sold on contracts with utilities rather than via the spot market. Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, notes that among nonsubsidized mines, the all-in cost of production can range anywhere from $10 a pound up to $38 a pound.

The supply-demand picture appears unchanged from last year, but this masks the underlying dynamics of an opaque and long-cycle industry. In 2021 global uranium demand is expected to shrink slightly to 178 million pounds from 2020’s 181 million pounds, with supply—both from mining and from secondary sources—staying constant around 166 million pounds, according to UxC. Though the numbers make it seem like demand exceeds supply, there are significant uranium sources that utilities, suppliers and intermediaries have stockpiled over the years.

Another source of uncertainty is in fuel supply from secondary sources, including so-called tailings from previously processed uranium that can be enriched. Some countries also supplement their uranium needs by reprocessing used fuel rods rather than buying uranium newly mined from the ground.

While estimating the exact global stockpile is tricky, there are some indications that inventory is starting to get depleted. Over the past five years, roughly 815 million pounds of uranium oxide equivalent have been consumed in reactors, while 390 million pounds have been locked up under long-term contracts with the uranium producers, according to UxC’s estimates. Expectations for so-called uncovered uranium requirements, the amount that nuclear power plants require but don’t have contracts for, aren’t very high for 2021 but are expected to reach 33% of demand in 2025 and 81% by 2035.

The panic is a reminder that modern life needs abundant energy: without it, bills become unaffordable, homes freeze and businesses stall. The panic has also exposed deeper problems as the world shifts to a cleaner energy system, including inadequate investment in renewables and some transition fossil fuels, rising geopolitical risks and flimsy safety buffers in power markets. Without rapid reforms there will be more energy crises and, perhaps, a popular revolt against climate policies.

 

Tight markets are vulnerable to shocks and the intermittent nature of some renewable power. The list of disruptions includes routine maintenance, accidents, too little wind in Europe, droughts that have cut Latin American hydropower output, and Asian floods that have impeded coal deliveries. The world may yet escape a severe energy recession: the glitches may be resolved and Russia and opec may grudgingly boost oil and gas production. At a minimum, however, the cost will be higher inflation and slower growth. And more such squeezes may be on the way.

That is because three problems loom large. First, energy investment is running at half the level needed to meet the ambition to reach net zero by 2050. Spending on renewables needs to rise. And the supply and demand of dirty fossil fuels needs to be wound down in tandem, without creating dangerous mismatches. Fossil fuels satisfy 83% of primary-energy demand and this needs to fall towards zero. At the same time the mix must shift from coal and oil to gas which has less than half the emissions of coal. But legal threats, investor pressure and fear of regulations have led investment in fossil fuels to slump by 40% since 2015.

 

Gas is the pressure point. Many countries, particularly in Asia, need it to be a bridge fuel in the 2020s and 2030s, shifting to it temporarily as they ditch coal but before renewables have ramped up. As well as using pipelines, most import liquefied natural gas (lng). Too few projects are coming on stream. According to Bernstein, a research firm, the global shortfall in lng capacity could rise from 2% of demand now to 14% by 2030.

Fossil fuels include coal, petroleum, natural gas, oil shales, bitumens, tar sands, and heavy oils. All contain carbon and were formed as a result of geologic processes acting on the remains of organic matter produced by photosynthesis

The second problem is geopolitics, as rich democracies quit fossil-fuel production and supply shifts to autocracies with fewer scruples and lower costs, including the one run by Mr Putin. The share of oil output from opec plus Russia may rise from 46% today to 50% or more by 2030. Russia is the source of 41% of Europe’s gas imports and its leverage will grow as it opens the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and develops markets in Asia. The ever-present risk is that it curtails supplies.

 

The last problem is the flawed design of energy markets. Deregulation since the 1990s has seen many countries shift from decrepit state-run energy industries to open systems in which electricity and gas prices are set by markets, supplied by competing vendors who add supply if prices spike. But these are struggling to cope with the new reality of fossil-fuel output declines, autocratic suppliers獨佔供應者(類似俄羅斯天然氣公司) and a rising share of intermittent不穩定 solar and wind power. Just as Lehman Brothers relied on overnight borrowing, so some energy firms guarantee households and businesses supplies that they buy in an unreliable spot market.

 

Governments need to respond by redesigning energy markets. Bigger safety buffers ought to absorb shortages and deal with the intermittency 供應量和價格上不穩定 of renewable power. Energy suppliers should hold more reserves, just as banks carry capital. Governments can invite firms to bid for backup-energy-supply contracts. Most reserves will be in gas but eventually battery and hydrogen technologies could take over. More nuclear plants, the capture and storage of carbon dioxide, or both, are vital to supply a baseload of clean, reliable power.

 

A more diverse supply can weaken the grip of autocratic petrostates such as Russia. Today that means building up the LNG business. In time it will require more global trade in electricity so that distant windy or sunny countries with renewable power to spare can export it. Today only 4% of electricity in rich countries is traded across borders, compared with 24% of global gas and 46% of oil. Building subsea grids is part of the answer and converting clean energy into hydrogen and transporting it on ships could help, too.

 

All this will require capital spending on energy to more than double to $4trn-5trn a year. Yet from investors’ perspective, policy is baffling. Many countries have net-zero pledges but no plan of how to get there and have yet to square with the public that bills and taxes need to rise. A movable feast of subsidies for renewables, and regulatory and legal hurdles make investing in fossil-fuel projects too risky. The ideal answer is a global carbon price that relentlessly lowers emissions, helps firms judge which projects would make money, and raises tax revenues to support the energy transition’s losers. Yet pricing schemes cover only a fifth of all emissions. The message from the shock is that leaders at cop26 must move beyond pledges and tackle the fine print of how the transition will work. All the more so if they meet under light bulbs powered by coal

Assistive technology - 輔助性科技

 

Assistive technology has traditionally been considered external to the human body and non-invasive. The field is now converging with medical technologies. Several emerging assistive products include implants and other products that would qualify as medical devices, with many of those moving beyond assistance towards augmentation or recovery of missing human functions.

Our analysis reveals that all identified emerging assistive products use one or a combination of several enabling technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things, brain computer/machine interface (BCI/BMI) and advanced sensors. 

These allow for smarter and connected assistive products which learn from the user’s behavior and environment, optimize and customize their functions and support independent living and navigation, telemedicine and smart nursing.

 Our findings show that patenting activity in the area of conventional technology is nearly

eight times bigger than that of emerging assistive technology, with 117,209 patent

filings compared to 15,592. However, filings in emerging technology are growing three times faster than conventional, with a 17% average annual growth rate (AAGR) compared to 6%.

 

In the emerging assistive technology space, the most active domain over the period is hearing, followed by mobility, vision and communication. However, since 2014 mobility has taken the lead among emerging assistive technology filings too. Indeed, the fastest-growing areas for patent filings relate to mobility and environment both in conventional (9% and 7% AAGR respectively in 2013-2017), and emerging assistive technology (24% and 42% AAGR respectively).

Patent protection for assistive technology is sought primarily in five 

markets: China, the U.S., Europe, Japan and the Republic of Korea.

The previous dominance of the U.S. and Japan has declined in 

recent years as filings increase in China and the Republic of Korea. 

The widest patent protection being sought is for mobility

assistive technologies.

the geographical profile of top players in assistive technology

is also changing: traditional European, Japanese and U.S. players 

now face increasing competition from Chinese and Korean players

We find that big corporate players(Google, Panasonic, Honda) are leading the development of assistive technology (48% of conventional and 60% of emerging assistive technology), dominating in hearing and vision, and to some extent communication

The leading players are pursuing holistic strategies 整體性策略

to protect their innovations, using not only patents and utility models but also industrial designs to protect the ornamental aspects of assistive products.