Investor Business Daily 分類縮詞解釋

 

Bldg - Heavy Con str 

Building 

2023 經濟復甦或衰退 ( 銀行端觀察 )

 

美爆發債潮 金融市場緊張

美國財政部周三表示，計劃增加公債發行量，繼續替政府融資並逐步重建現金儲備。初步增加發行的國庫券將集中在短期基準債券和現金管理票據上。

國會通過提高聯邦債務上限後，原先擱置的公債發行活動將密集展開，好讓美國財政部重建現金餘額。上周財政部現金水位降到2017年來最低。

個人補充 : 當前美政府公債發行量創歷史新高, 一年利息費用超過國防軍工業上繳的Corporation income tax, 假如美公債違約, 遭到降評, 這是比經濟衰退還嚴重的事所以財政部一定要發短債, 把市場資金抽回來繳交公債利息或預算赤字

摩根大通預估，到 6 月底，美國財政部現金餘額將約為 4,250 億美元。現金儲備預估將在 7 月增加、8 月下降，直到 9 月底達到政策規定水準。該行預測，到今年底，美國政府將需要借入 1.1 兆美元的短期公債，未來 4 個月淨發行 8,500 億美元國庫券。

2020 績效檢討

 

AYX  ALTERYX INC - CL A                  75.20       3.25 %

BECN BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY INC     349.34     9.86 %

BECN是當初觀看 High yield bond mutual funds 持股部位, 發現這一家BECN, 過去20年來營收趨勢很穩定成長, 2020.3月疫情風暴掉到15塊以下

6月份開始放, 放到8月底, 因為市場氣氛緊張跌好幾天, BECN 我怕虧損被套住3個月

先下跌漲回來就賣掉, 哪知道賣掉隔2天, 突然漲10幾%上去, 然後就一直40塊 ~ 50塊一直上去, 當時以為它漲不動,   但這種傳產牛皮股, 至少要給它等3個月, 我當時等了80多天, 再多等3~ 5天, 確定它漲不動, 再賣也不遲( 我時間差算錯 )

BME BLACKROCK HEALTH SCIENCES T    72.99       19.28 %  

CCL  CARNIVAL CORP              66.45       10.10 %          

CRM SALESFORCE INC 01/13/20 550.62     03/04/20 513.42     -37.20      -6.76%    

DB   DEUTSCHE BANK AG       -12.89      -1.31%    

INTC  INTEL CORP         10/01/20        521.90     10/02/20 515.69     -6.21        -1.19%

MHGVY   MOWI ASA SP ADR                 165.57     6.22 %    

2020.9月大跌, 10月美股多頭反攻買進

NOK NOKIA CORP ADR            5.23 0.45%   

PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC                    7,522.89  ---    7,991.34  468.45     6.23%             

SCO  PROSHARES ULTRASHORT DJ UBS          12/31/19 366.00     01/03/20 338.39     -27.61      -7.54%

SDOW      PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT DO                5,090.89  ---    5,081.01  -9.88      -0.19%            

SPLK SPLUNK INC                     8,449.69  ---    8,477.64  27.95     0.33 %

SQQQ      PROSHARES ULTRPRO SHORT QQQ                8,350.47  ---    8,514.11  163.64   1.96%             

SQQQ      PROSHARES ULTRPRO SHORT QQQ                4,146.58  ---    4,049.93  -96.65    -2.33%    

T  AT&T INC                   -0.38        -0.06%            

TEVA        TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTR         1,919.69  ---    1,810.85  -108.84  -5.67%  

TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YEAR TRE                       01/13/20 760.76   01/17/20 753.46         -7.30        -0.96%     

TQQQ      PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ ETF                   4,445.92  ---    4,802.23  356.31   8.01%   

主要是2020 .9月份做BECN 不成功, 沮喪幾天, 看了一晚安納金的書, 彷彿被精神鼓勵, 那晚美股三大指數剛經歷9月大跌, 反彈突破, 感覺上要開啟一輪反攻,  收起BECN失敗灰心, 恢復冷靜, 感受市場剛大跌完, 試著擺脫疫情悲觀言論, 尋求突破的氣氛, 那星期前2天美股指數都上升的蠻穩健, 當下勇敢地改作指數 TQQQ, 順利的一星期賺上8.01%

TUR ISHARES MSCI TURKEY ETF           04/07/20         04/20/20         7.59 1.93       %    

UCO PROSHARES ULTRA BLOOMBERG 12/02/19        347.44     01/23/20  332.69  -14.75    -4.25%  

UGL PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD               908.56     ---    874.38     -34.18      -3.76%    

UPWK      UPWORK INC          2,906.01  ---    3,189.92  283.91   9.77%

放一些部位, 疫情過後美股大漲, 從9塊衝到13塊賣出, 中間暑假盤整小虧,  9 月份從18塊衝到27 , 28塊有出大量,  但怕回跌賣出( 2019曾經下跌25%被咬過, 心理陰影)  但沒想到疫情促成遠距工作興起, 衝過30 , 40, 再來52塊停歇好幾個月

VNM        VANECK VIETNAM ETF            07/16/19 16.52       12/07/20 16.46       -0.06        -0.36%    

2023 市場教戰守則

 

3526 凡甲

觀察營收是否衰退, 有續增, 股價又回落 120 ~ 130, 去接

2377 微星

毛利回落, 但至少比2020Q1還要高, 等股價回落 , 營收增速回到2021水準再考慮去接

MHGVY

剩餘錢都拿去塞這隻 就對

SPLK

MHGVY 賺到的錢, 挪30%移到這家公司

SBUX 

最近

2023 經濟復甦或衰退

2023. 9. 1

三大因素, 美經濟超出專家預期

Pimco 2023下半年經濟展望

Apr 23. 2023

Amazon fall after warning on slowind down in cloud business growth

台灣雲端設備廠商最近半年來營收趨勢

 

2019 績效檢討

 

ALTERYX INC - CL A   60.29  +21.67 %

( 2020年初 加賺75.2USD  +3.25)    

TABLEAU SOFTWARE INC-CL A  賺462USD  + 28.42%

 

MOWI ASA SP ADR  虧188 USD  - 4.5%

 

PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC  虧158 USD   - 5%

 

SCO       PROSHARES ULTRASHORT DJ   - 121.09  -6.64%    

SQQQ    PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQ  - 544.7  -21.38% 

SQQQ    PROSHARES ULTRPRO SHORT QQQ -135.20  -2.65%   

TQQQ     PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ ETF  + 324.63  +4.85 %

UCO     PROSHARES ULTRA BLOOMBERG C  + 418.8  +40.8 %

UDOW   PROSHARES ULTRAPRO DOW30      + 84.7    +7.7 %

你用3倍槓桿正ETF + 3倍槓桿做空ETF 對沖

324 + 418 + 84 – 121 -544 -135 = 26 USD ( 一整年下來績效 )

 

UPWORK INC      虧357 USD   -25.61%  

(還好隔年May 2020 你有追回 284 USD +9.7%)

 

VANECK VIETNAM ETF      虧43.0     - 3.62 %

海龜4號 MHGVY - Mowi 挪威鮭魚

 

國內愛吃鮭魚的饕客, 可能都聽過這間來自挪威Mowi（前身Marine Harvest), 這家每年鮭魚養殖&國外出口量佔比超過挪威GDP 1 %, 就像台G神山對於台灣重要性, 年初看到MHGVY( Mowi ADR代號）從之前高點跌破20, 便開始追蹤它

PS : 2023 Norway GDP 449 billion euro, Mowi annual sales revenue 5.5 billion euro

5.5/ 449 = 1.12%

年初2月份有先小額布局, 後來在19塊附近以為會繼續上攻藍色虛線

28 Apr 和5 May 各加碼2次(成本約18.6), 占總投資組合18%

結果發現錯誤, 跌破19以後繼續下行 ! ( 沒有太責怪自己, 單純賭錯 )  

回頭看過交易紀錄, 5月份陸續在 17.7 ~ 17.2 建立大約 21% 部位
已盡力壓低成本

6 Jun 趁價位低檔, 價位17.0今天再加碼14.5%, 截至當日Mowi佔總部位 65% , 老天保佑我.....錢所剩不多, 打算賣掉部分台股, 資金移到Mowi 支援

時間很快來到2023Q3, 年初我一時賭錯把Mowi價位買的有些高約18塊, 後來死拖活拖想辦法將成本壓在17.6附近, 6月份某一晚它突然從16.9飆漲到17.6（虧損幾乎全部回來）一看機不可失, 趕緊賣掉70%部位（賭它未來回跌）果然賣掉後一個星期回跌至17.0~17.2, 我就在這個價位區間(17 ~ 17.2)重新進場佈局（成本變成17.1） 之前買太高劣勢已消失, 牌局重新開始👽 押股比重破50%, 慢慢加碼, 最高一度來到78%

後來過一陣子它再度發動攻擊, 一下子漲到17.8

開始賺錢, 前陣子在18.1有部份了結, 但目前部位仍佔40%

寫信去提問 Mowi Investor Relation 發言人

值得一提的是, 今年5月趁著Mowi開股東大會, 我有寫封mail寄去詢問他們投資關係人代表Kim Dosvig。因為投資人最重視的挪威新頒布「35%環境資源稅 Resource rent tax」明顯影響Mowi 2023 profit after tax 。 信中提問內容大致如下 :

Mowi養殖鮭魚的漁場除了挪威- 英格蘭北海的主要漁場, 在加拿大, 南美智利都有漁場, 被課稅的地理範圍是那些區域！？ 我想先搞清楚, 它們鮭魚出貨量大約多少比重會被課稅35% ！？

詢問信寄出一個星期沒收到回應, 心理想說自己是個來自Taiwan, Asia 小散戶, 沒回應屬正常, 寄出後第10天上午, 剛幫長輩洗澡完, 換上乾淨尿布, 安置好長輩睡覺, 回神拿起手機滑滑, 看到螢幕Gmail出現字眼Mowi, Mr. Dosvig, 有些驚喜, 打開來看, 針對Mowi 養殖漁場被課稅35%地理範圍，他回覆如下圖 ：

我當天下班回家立即回信Dosvig先生, 感謝他的回覆, 並附上自己帳戶5月份當時投資MHGVY比重, 解釋自己是個 Tiny Retailer investor, 選擇重押他們公司, 認同其在全球鮭魚供應的地位

經過6月份賣掉所有部位, 二次重新布局, 7月份以後我就一直抱著Mowi 股票, 成本17.2, 部位70%, 一直抱到隔年2月份, 價位漲到最高19.8  幫助帳戶增值+16%

我直接用一張圖表說明整個投資過程 👇

但漲到2024. Feb 當時我決定沒有賣出,  因此這個MHGVY投資沒有結束
且看下回揭曉

                                                   ............................To be continued 

Agriculture in Norway, resource rent tax of 40% will be introduced with effect from 1 January 2023

price achievement includes margins from Consumer Products and Markets, but excludes margins from Feed. The quality effect is adjusted for normal quality distribution. Comparison figures from earlier periods have been re-presented accordingly.

The overall price achieved by Mowi for salmon of Norwegian origin was 2% above the reference price in the third quarter of 2021 (5% above the reference price level in the third quarter of 2020). Contribution from contracts, including contribution from Consumer Products, had a positive effect on price achievement relative to the reference price in the third quarter of both 2021 and 2020. The contract share was 22% (24%). The superior share was 95% (94%).

It is proposed that fixed assets acquired before the introduction of the resource rent tax should be deductible through depreciation of remaining tax values. 

1)No deductions will be given for the cost of the fish licenses 

2) or costs incurred in connection with the acquisition of a license. 

On the deduction side, actual costs are used as a start, but a standard deduction may be considered for some costs. The Ministry proposes that if a company has a negative estimated resource rent income, this should be carried forward with interest and be deducted from positive resource rent income in the future. 

It is proposed that the effective resource rent tax rate is set at 40 percent. In conjunction with the ordinary corporate tax, this leads to an overall effective marginal tax of 62 percent on proceeds from salmon, trout and rainbow trout (0,22 + 0,4 = 0,62). For example, if the tax free allowance amount in a year is NOK 54 million, profits exceeding this amount will be taxed at 62 percent.

Demand was good in all markets, and Consumer Products sold 229 434 tonnes. This was higher than before the pandemic, but lower than in 2020 and 2021

P32 ~ 33

Global consumption decreased by 2.0% in 2022 compared to 2021 including inventory effects. Despite the supply contraction, the estimated global value of salmon reached a record-high level, demonstrating the strong underlying growth drivers for salmon as a nutritious and sustainable source of protein. Consumption in the retail channel remained considerably above pre-pandemic levels, whereas foodservice activity improved year-on-year. Consumption in the EU and UK decreased by 1.2% compared with 2021 mainly due to lower global supply and less product availability. Underlying demand for salmon in Europe remained strong, and the further reopening of the foodservice segment had a positive effect overall demand.

Demand in the US market was impressive and consumption growth was 2.6% compared with 2021 and reached an impressive 586 700 tonnes. The increase in consumption meant that the US continued to gain market share from a global sourcing perspective. Chilean volumes destined for the Russian market were redirected to other markets with particular focus on the US market due to good demand. The retailers' focus on pre-packed salmon continues unabated, and this trend is fuelled by the evolution of e-commerce activity through home-delivery and in-store pick-up.

P39

SALMON OF SCOTTISH ORIGIN

SALMON OF CHILEAN ORIGIN

 SALMON OF IRISH ORIGIN

Liquidity, Cashflow and Borrowings

Our principal sources of liquidity are cash on hand, revenues generated from our operations, loans and other financings. Our principal needs for liquidity have been, and will likely continue to be, costs of raw materials, including fish feed, other working capital items and capital expenditures, to service our debt, and to fund dividend payments and acquisitions. We believe that our liquidity is sufficient to cover our working capital needs in the ordinary course of business.

Our cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2022 was EUR 178.5 million compared with EUR 101.7 million as of December 31, 2021. Cash and cash equivalents comprise cash and bank deposits, including restricted funds. Restricted funds are mainly related to employees’ income tax withholdings

Supply of Atlantic salmon decreased by 1.0% in 2022, mainly due to decreased supply from the European market. Demand improved significantly driven by Covid-19-related re-openings of the foodservice segment. These effects led to prices at all-time high levels. The reference price for salmon of Norwegian origin increased by 40.1% for the year. An even stronger development was experienced in the US market for salmon of Chilean origin, with an increase in price of 13.9%. For salmon of Canadian origin, prices increased by 14.1% and 21.0% on the West and East coast respectively

https://playitkoi.com/blogs/koi-health/gill-health-why-its-important 

Mowi Sottland farm biological issue