2022年5月23日 星期一

Square 's Crypto land scape

 


Dorsey’s case for bitcoin


As of the quarter ended in March, bitcoin still only accounted for roughly 5% of Block’s gross profits. But executives are betting on crypto as a secular trend in which Block could be well positioned. Dorsey described it as the “open standard for global money transmission” and said it will allow Block’s “entire business to move faster globally.”

Block first started offering bitcoin trading through the Cash App, and the company holds it on its balance sheet as an alternative to cash. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down more than 50% from its high and has struggled to regain its value so far this year.

Block’s crypto businesses have expanded to a bitcoin hardware wallet, a bitcoin-mining business, and an open-source business called TBD for developers. On top of that, there’s an independent, bitcoin-focused business within Block called Spiral.

Dorsey is not as bullish on other cryptocurrencies and said the “internet requires a currency native to itself, and looking at the entire ecosystem of technologies to fill this role, it’s clear that bitcoin is currently the only candidate.







Still, Block’s CFO, Ahuja said the company is outperforming its peers on profitability. Block released updated profit margins Wednesday — an increasingly important metric as investors prioritize the bottom line over growth.

Adjusted profit margins for the Square side of the business last year were 34%, and they were 12% for Cash App, according to the company. On the pure-growth side, Cash App now has 46 million monthly active users and 80 million annual actives as of March.

BNPL ( Buy now pay later ) 趨勢

 

Upstart Shares Crash After a Big Preliminary Miss, JMP Cuts to Market Perform  8 July 2022
The downturn of Macroeconomy lead to the money-striction on Banks 

The Global Digital Payment Market is expected to reach USD$ 12.55 Trillion by 2027, grow with a CAGR of 10.9% ( some report state reach USD 15.27 trillion by 2027, grow with a CAGR of 12.38% ) . For years, the market has been haunting for a payment solution that delivers a better customer experience.

by 2025, BNPL will account for more than 12% of total ecommerce. The Kaleido study suggests that BNPL spend via mobile will grow at more than 16% CAGR until 2025

有人指出 BNPL sales expected to more than double between 2021 and 2026, roughly 20% CAGR  annually

in Southeast Asia at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of between 15% and 20% over the next five to ten years

Measures to Stop the Debt Trap
At Australia’s Afterpay, customers are barred from using its services after they miss a payment. According to the company, 95% of its transactions globally are paid back on time, and late fees contribute less than 14% of its total income


Another crucial aspect of the performance of any lending entity is its delinquency/default rate. Here’s an analysis of the default rates of some of the larger BNPL providers across regions: These numbers resemble credit card delinquency rates—hovering between 1.5% and 2.4% over the past one year


Paypal 的 BNPL ( Buy now pay later ) 追蹤




PayPal has now staked a claim for Paidy, a Japanese BNPL player with 6M members. In March, Paidy had raised JPY 13B from George Soros, one of the largest fundraises by a private company in Japan. Visa is also one of its backers, along with trading house Itochu Corp. Paidy is being valued at $2.7B by PayPal, and the deal should be completed by Q4. 

Thus far, PayPal has been servicing its 4.3M active Japanese accounts, focusing on cross-border e-commerce payments for overseas products. PayPal’s narrow focus in Japan thus far shouldn’t come as a surprise. Japan is the third-largest e-commerce market globally, with online shopping volumes more than tripling over the last decade to over $200B.

With the Paidy acquisition, PayPal is now positioning itself for the domestic payments market in Japan. Its economic superpower tag notwithstanding, Japan still sees two-thirds of its population using cash to make payments. As payment mode shifts to digital, Paidy is right there to grab a share.

2022年5月18日 星期三

2022美國通膨追蹤







👆👆上面美國銀行商業信用萬一繼續升上去,  美股確定 GG 

去年2021.9月 保羅. 克魯曼仍覺得通膨不是個大問題, 如下述 : 

克魯曼表示,在新冠疫情造成扭曲之前,可用「核心通膨」Core CPI概念輕易解答此問題。1970年代,經濟學家戈登(Robert Gordon)建議,諸如石油、黃豆等大宗商品的價格不時波動,應與其他調整頻率較不那麼頻繁的物價加以區別。戈登主張,比起整體通膨指標,剔除食物與能源的通膨指標更能忠實反映根本的通膨現況。👈 問題是值到2021年底, 核心通膨也脹起來了

再進一步探討, 假如通膨真得起來, 要判斷它是否惡化下去, 第一個觀察原物料是否續漲, 另一個觀察重點 - 工資是否上漲

我們先看去年新聞報導 :
鮑爾指向另一種不同的指標:工資漲幅。在疫情衝擊最大的一些行業,這項指標近來升幅可觀;但整體而言,根據亞特蘭大聯邦準備銀行追蹤工資成長的指標,似乎仍屬溫和,尚未見到工資與物價呈螺旋性上升(wage-price spiral)的跡象, 解釋請看這篇

2022年5月17日 星期二

銀行股指標 Delinquency rate 和 Default rate 差異

 


Delinquency means that you are behind on payments.遲繳貸款  Once you are delinquent for a certain period of time (usually nine months for federal loans), your lender will declare the loan to be in default.遲繳9個月, 債主認列呆帳default The entire loan balance will become due at that time.


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/062315/what-are-differences-between-delinquency-and-default.asp



https://www.investopedia.com/historical-us-credit-card-delinquency-rates-5120737



2022年5月12日 星期四

Digital payment industry 追蹤 ( 一 )

先了解一下支付運作過程

Digital payment process : a quick look

ABC's Payment value chain



Digital payment 的基本架構& 專有名詞 ( Paypal 為例 )

Transaction expense
 is primarily composed of the costs related to a customer’s funding source of payment. These costs include fees paid to payment processors and other financial institutions when we draw funds from a customer’s credit or debit card, bank account, or other funding source they have stored intheir digital wallet



We refer to the allocation of funding sources used by our consumers as our “funding mix.” The cost of funding a transaction with a credit ordebit card is generally higher than the cost of funding a transaction from a bank or through internal sources such as a PayPal or Venmo account balance or our consumer credit products. As we expand the availability and presentation of alternative funding sources to our customers, our funding mix may change, which could increase or decrease our transaction expense rate





Our transaction expense rate is impacted bychanges in product mix, merchant mix, regional mix, funding mix, and fees paid to payment processors and other financial institutions

Transaction expense increased by $2.4 billion, or 30%, in 2021 compared to 2020 due primarily to an increase in TPV of 33%. The decrease in transaction expenserate in 2021 compared to 2020 was due primarily to a decline in transaction expense rates associated with both our core PayPal and Braintree products, offset by anincrease in the share of volume associated with our Braintree products




Transaction and credit losses

Transaction losses include the expense associated with our buyer and seller protection programs, fraud, and chargebacks. Credit losses include the losses associated with our merchant and consumer loans receivable portfolio. Beginning in 2020, these losses are based on current expected credit losses. Our transaction and credit losses fluctuate depending on many factors, including TPV, product mix, current and projected macroeconomic conditions including unemployment rates,merchant insolvency events, changes to and usage of our customer protection programs, the impact of regulatory changes, and the credit quality of loans receivable arising from transactions funded with our credit products for consumers and loans and advances to merchants.




Transaction losses were $1.2 billion and $1.1 billion for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, reflecting an increase of $18 million, or 2%,year-over-year. Transaction loss rate (transaction losses divided by TPV) was 0.09%, 0.12%, and 0.15% for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020, and 2019,respectively. The increase in transaction losses was due primarily to growth in TPV, partially offset by benefits realized from continued risk mitigation strategies,which also contributed to a decrease in our transaction loss rate over the same period. The duration and severity of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related global economic conditions remain unknown. Any negative impacts on macroeconomic conditions could increase the risk of merchant bankruptcy,insolvency, business failure, or other business interruption, which may adversely impact our transaction losses, particularly for merchants that sell goods or services in advance of the date of their delivery or use.

Net charge-off ,  Loss reserve

來看一下什麼是Loan loss reserve  ! 

What Is Loan Loss Reserve? 

Loan loss reserves (LLRs) are types of insurance and credit enhancement that help banks and lenders mitigate estimated losses on loans in the event of defaults or nonpayments. Should borrowers default on their loan, banks might use loan loss reserve funds to alleviate these losses.
How Often Are Loan Loss Reserves Calculated?

Loan loss reserves are revised quarterly. Should an increase in the balance occur, it is called a loan loss provision. A decrease in the balance, however, is referred to as a net charge-off.

Loan Loss Reserve Accounting Example

Bank XYZ has made $10,000,000 of loans to various companies and individuals. Bank XYZ works very hard to ensure that it lends only to people who are able to repay their loans in full and on time. However, some will inevitably default, fall behind, or even need to renegotiate their loan payments.

Bank XYZ knows this and estimates that 1% of its loans (i.e. $100,000) will probably never be paid. This $100,000 estimate is recorded as Bank XYZ’s reserve for loan losses and is entered a negative number on the asset portion of its balance sheet.

If Bank XYZ decides to write all (or a portion) of a loan off, it will remove the loan from its asset balance while also removing the amount of the write-off from its loan loss reserve. The amount deducted from the loan loss reserve may be tax-deductible for Bank XYZ.



繼續看Paypal 財報注釋
The benefit in the year ended December 31, 2021 was attributable to the net release of reserves for loans receivable due to improvements in both current and projected macroeconomic conditions, including lower projected unemployment rates, as well as improvements in the credit quality of loans outstanding, partially offset by provisions for originations during the period. Allowances for our merchant and consumer portfolios included qualitative adjustments which took into account continued volatility with respect to macroeconomic conditions, as well as uncertainty around the financial health of our merchant borrowers, including uncertainty around the effectiveness of loan modification programs made available to merchants. The credit losses in the year ended December 31, 2020 were primarily associated with an increase in provisions for our loans receivable portfolio resulting from a reserve build driven by a sharp deterioration inmacroeconomic projections reflecting the anticipated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and provisions associated with originations, both of which significantly increased our then current expected credit losses, and to a lesser extent, changes in credit quality during the period. The increase in provisions associated with macroeconomic projections in the year ended December 31, 2020 included qualitative adjustments to account for the impact of limitations in our expected credit loss models resulting from the extreme fluctuations in both the actual and projected macroeconomic conditions during the period as well as to incorporate varying degrees of merchant performance in the current environment and expected performance in future periods. The consumer loans and interest receivable balance as of December 31, 2021 and 2020 was $3.8 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, representing a year-over-year increase of 77% driven by growth of our installment credit products in international markets and the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, growth of PayPal Credit ininternational markets. 


The net charge-off rate at December 31, 2020 benefited from payment holidays provided by the Company as a part of our COVID-19 payment relief initiatives.We offer merchant finance products for certain small and medium-sized businesses, which we refer to as our merchant finance offerings. Total merchant loans, advances, and interest and fees receivable outstanding, net of participation interest sold, as of both December 31, 2021 and 2020 were approximately $1.4billion. Approximately 82% and 8% of our merchant receivables outstanding as of December 31, 2021 were due from merchants in the U.S. and U.K, as compared to approximately 81% and 10% as of December 31, 2020, respectively



The increase in the percent of current merchant receivables, decrease in percent of merchant receivables greater than 90 days outstanding, and decrease in the net charge-off rate for merchant receivables at December 31, 2021 as compared to December 31, 2020 were primarily due to the charge-off of accounts that experienced financial difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the prior year as well as improved performance in the current year partially attributableto the below mentioned modifications to the acceptable risk parameters including tightening of eligibility terms. Beginning in the third quarter of 2020, we granted certain merchants loan modifications intended to provide them with financial relief and help enable us tomitigate losses. The associated loans and interest receivable have been treated as troubled debt restructurings due to the borrowers experiencing financial difficulty and significant changes in their loan structure, including repayment terms and/or fee and rate structure. Modifications to the acceptable risk parameters of our credit products in 2020 in response to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the implementation of a number of risk mitigation strategies, including reduction of maximum loan size, tightening eligibility terms, and a shift from automated to manual underwriting of loans and advances. These changes in acceptable risk parameters resulted in a decrease in originations in 2020 as compared to prepandemic levels. We continue to evaluate and modify our acceptable risk parameters in response to the changing macroeconomic environment and such changes in2021 have resulted in a gradual increase in originations over the past nine months. While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic environmentremains uncertain, the longer and more severe the pandemic, the more likely it may have a material adverse impact on our borrowing base, which is primarily comprised of small and medium-sized merchants. For additional information, see “Note 11—Loans and Interest Receivable” in the notes to the consolidated financial statements, and “Item 1A. Risk Factors—Our credit products expose us to additional risks” included in this Form 10-K.








Analysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down 這應該是Ark 木頭姐大舉買 Square 原因


据悉,近日,美国移动支付公司Square表示,将通过290亿美元的全股票形式交易,收购澳大利亚金融科技支付公司Afterpay向消费贷款领域扩张。交易完成后,预计Afterpay持有合并后公司约18.5%的股份。

  这一消息提振了Affirm股价,可能是因为猜测该公司可能成为收购目标。Affirm美股周一收盘涨14.90%,报64.71美元。

  对于SquareAfterpay的合并,Max Levchin表示该交易“是一个强有力的声明”,即支付处理的“世界正在改变”。他表示:“信用卡将成为这笔交易的输家。”此外,他没有直接回答有关潜在追求者的问题,称他无法预测,但指出Affirm一直是收购方

加密货币方面,Max Levchin还暗示该公司可能正在考虑接受加密货币,称Affirm将“去商家想去的地方”。该公司目前暂不接受比特币,Max Levchin认为加密货币正在“过渡到主流”。Max Levchin称不想“预先宣布”任何事情,但他确实表示,随着对比特币和其他加密货币接受程度不断上升,Affirm将“拭目以待”