麻豆小子

2022年5月10日星期二

美國農作物栽種進度遲緩, CBOT黃豆玉米上漲

2022. 5月美國農植進度遲緩 CBOT黃豆玉米上漲

原物料方面先盯小麥期貨, 續漲只是給民生消費更大壓力( 確定俄羅斯-中國- 印度是糧食淨進口, 烏克蘭是小麥主要出口國)

2022年5月8日星期日

1959 Bonds yield flipped over Dividends', but it's just the the past

1959 年債券殖利率曾經第三次超過股票殖利率(前2次分別 1989和 1929), 而導致股市大跌而隨即展開2年的高點震盪

my partners, veterans of the Great Crash, kept assuring me that the seeming trend was nothing but an aberration變異. They promised me that matters would revert to normal in just a few months, that stock prices would fall and bond prices would rally.

2022年5月7日星期六

Investment Banks, Hedge Funds, and Private Equity 重點摘要

Hedge fund strategies have become more diversified in order to reduce investment risk.For example, in 1990, macro investments by hedge funds comprised 39% of all hedge fund assets. By 2008, this strategy comprised only 20% of hedge fund assets. During the same period of time, arbitrage and event-driven strategies combined grew from 24% to 48% of all hedge fund assets

arbitrage 和 event-driven strategies大量使用這解釋為何2018年後大盤震盪這麼激烈

2022年5月6日星期五

中國市場 ( 二)

中國貴州貴陽市

source from Credit-Sussie

China is ‘Changing Gears’ — what are your expectations for China over the next 12-months?

Janice Hu: China’s economic rebalancing and upgrading is expected to remain well on track, despite the near-term pressure in the coming few quarters due to the weakness in consumption and the cooling property market.

美國投資英文術語

vertical market?

vertical market, also referred to as a “business vertical” is a term used to describe a specific industry or market that focuses on a particular niche. For example, organic groceries could be considered a vertical market as the companies and consumers in this niche are only interested in buying or selling organic goods.

horizontal market?

Horizontal markets are markets that meet the needs of customers in a wide variety of industries rather than one niche industry. For example, a large grocery store chain could be considered part of a horizontal market as it most likely caters to a wide audience and relies on various retailers in several industries.

Horizontal markets are typically adapted by small or new businesses that might lack necessary capital, staff or general resources. These companies, therefore, partner with other companies—temporarily or permanently—to share resources and profit. 可以解釋為何台灣鄉下地區小餐廳, 不管中式西式, 剛開幕屬於專門餐點( 義大利麵, 台灣菜, 日本料理) 過了 1-2年就火鍋, 排餐, 燴飯, 炒麵什麼都賣

"Dollar-cost averaging (DCA)” 定期定額 ( 平均成本法)

It’s an investment technique of buying a fixed dollar amount of a particular investment on a regular schedule, regardless of the share price."

Moonshot Investing

What Is Moonshot Investing? Moonshot investing is investing in companies you believe will have a meteoric rise. It is based on identifying a trend and knowing that the market will eventually rate the companies much higher.

我搞錯波羅地海指數BDI 在總經預測的位置

以前一直以為BDI Index 黃金交叉, 代表景氣要恢復, 它是海運大量運輸原物料和大宗物資的訊號, 而原物料和大宗物資需求通常是景氣循環第一關, 引申出BDI 黃金交叉代表景氣要恢復, 而且股市會進入艾略特波浪第一階段 !? ( 這個思維盲點, 讓我2022Q1台股疏於戒心, 現在套住)

我們來實際看圖驗證一下