怪物隊長領導學 - 管理好5-15人, 就準備一直贏

 (第七章 ) 挑水者 : 隊長和戰績明星的關係

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企業管理學的兩難是, 會努力追求領導地位的人, 往往都不適任。他們只是受到隊長特權和光環的吸引,而並非真心想提升隊伍的目標和價值。

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媒體的英雄未必是真正的英雄，寵兒也是。我們活在媒體創造的世界，或許有幾分真實，絕大部份卻是虛構。虛構的英雄往往只是現實中的混蛋而已。

 

基恩在曼聯的總教練亞力士, 認為球員真實的運動能力和領導能力是完全不相干, 無關聯的兩碼事。沒錯 ! 隊長的角色有象徵性意義, 因為隊長是代表公司上台領獎接受表揚的人。然而！ 我想要的是真正的領袖, 而不是看起來好看的裝飾品

 

Page 174 最下面

更重要的是, 大部份得冠軍的球隊隊長對於名聲沒太多興趣

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我的研究一再說明了, 與一般球迷的想法相反, 挑水者更有可能偏好默默付出,成為強而有力的隊長。事實上頂尖隊伍的領導力極可能是來自隊伍的後方, 而不是前線的明星。或許不是什麼激勵人心的事蹟, 也不會有人因此寫詩或雕刻石碑紀念, 但默默付出, 特別是擔綱防守的堅強後盾, 毫無疑問會是隊伍成功的關鍵。

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連拿2次NBA總冠軍的San Antonio Spurs馬刺隊, 隊中大當家Duncan大眾始終都不太了解Duncan, 但他的隊友很明白, Duncan的領導驗證了「挑水者」的真正價值。他在隊長群中擁有罕見的才華, 足以掌控比賽, 打出精彩的NBA數據, 但他的領導風格讓他壓抑自己的打球風格, 甚至壓低自己的薪水, 專注於修補隊伍不足之處。他不在意自己的公開形象, 只在乎球隊的勝利。

 

健策 (3653) - 聯發科(2454) 筆記區

 

健策(3653)的主要業務是散熱產品，導線架，以及電子零件等。最受市場矚目的是伺服器晶片用均熱片、電動車散熱模組/IGBT水冷式散熱模組等產品。

均熱片大量使用於7奈米以下製程的產品，主要客戶有AMD與INTEL等，預估2022年下半年台積電3奈米3D封裝量產時，蘋果和聯發科也會使用此類產品。

內部人持股28.76%，大戶(含外資)持有69.78%，散戶12.61%，外資6.83%，三大法人合計15.78%，投信持股目前略高於外資。 2021Q2毛利29.32%、淨利12.17%，殖利率2.02%，股價淨值比5.8，本益比43.73，ROE13.04，股本12.22億，上市11年。

2021年7月營收783.5百萬元，月增3.63%，年增44.76%，今年三月以來每個月的營收都在上升。每股盈餘2021Q2 2.14，近4季累計6.85，2020年8.26。
公司在桃園龜山，工廠在華亞，大園，以及無錫。

注意到健策的原因是簡之隊簡大推薦，是簡大的雪球股之一。

 

「打2劑疫苗確診病毒量不減」9成是Delta 醫師籲：還是要戴好口罩

COVID-19持續延燒，近期又因印度變異株（Delta變種病毒）使全球確診人數速迅攀升！「打完2劑完整疫苗的人感染仍然會帶一樣多的病毒，研究中的病毒基因分析有9成是Delta的感染者。」胸腔科醫師蘇一峰昨（19日）分享最新研究，並提醒即使打完疫苗，個人防護措施仍不能鬆懈。

Delta變種病毒擴散全球，使多個原先已控制疫情的國家再次變得嚴峻，該病毒傳播力增強，已成多個國家的主要流行病毒株。蘇一峰於臉書發文針對美國最新研究所撰寫的部落格文章，該篇就直接以「美國研究帶來壞消息！打完兩劑疫苗感染者的病毒量與感染能力與沒打疫苗一樣多！」為題，分享美國威斯康辛大學麥迪遜分校收集719名確診者資料，其中122個案的基因定序有9成是Delta感染者。

心得感想 :  看來這次疫情會是打持久戰, 短短 2-3年內公共場所恢復常態是不大可能, 不過這樣也為股市提供一個天然的抑制劑, 避免市場浮濫資金造成無可挽救的 Bubble. 

美債殖利率曲線 - 景氣循環

 

美股韭菜王

 

殖利率曲線重大轉變，但不是暗示經濟衰退。

最近美債殖利率曲線的長、短天期利差收斂，使得斜率持續趨平，有看到一些分析說，債市擔憂經濟衰退，我個人是持著不同想法。

我想債市目前並不是暗示經濟衰退將來臨，而只是在部分定價經濟放緩的預期，主要是針對下列 3 個因子來作漸進式定價。

(1) Fed 緊縮預期、

(2) 今年高基期帶來的明年經濟放緩預期、

(3) 更遠看，升息後帶來的經濟放緩預期。

剛好搭上美債殖利率曲線趨平的市況，所以下面順便跟大家分享殖利率曲線彰顯的景氣 4 循環，一樣具有「復甦、擴張、放緩、衰退」涵義在裡面。

而目前美債殖利率曲線斜率趨平針對上述 3 點的定價，似乎也正暗示我們已進入了第 2 循環。

當然，對應每個殖利率曲線週期，在資產組合的配置上、尤其是作股、債配置的基金，會有一個「基本」相對應的配置，但這就是「基本原則」罷了。

報酬率想要勝過大盤，選股上還是得在各循環內以 Bottom-up 方式去選股，所以大家就在這個「基本原則」下，適宜的參考使用吧。

**貼心小提醒：文長，想直接了解我們現在落在哪一個循環，以及資產配置思路的，就 End 看倒數第二段吧。

財務分析

 

Splunk - perspective from Morningstar

Splunk: Future Tech Behemoth Still Trading At Modest Levels

Jul. 11, 2021 10:39 AM ETSplunk Inc. (SPLK)4 Comments13 Likes

Summary

• Shares of Splunk remain down ~20% year-to-date for no apparent reason.
• The company is just passing the jump of its cloud transition, as revenue has started turning positive again, with cloud bookings exceeding >50% of the total.
• ARR growth is still clinging to a rapid ~40% pace.
• A recent $1 billion convertible stock investment by Silver Lake Partners, with a strike price of $160, signals upward confidence in the stock.
• Splunk is still trading attractively at <8x next year's revenue.

Splunk

Economic Moat Rating increased to Narrow from None 

“We are raising our fair value estimate for Splunk to US$154 per share from US$126 while changing our moat rating to narrow from none and maintaining our positive trend rating. We are upgrading our moat rating to reflect our increased confidence in Splunk’s ability to attain sustainable profitability.

In a world where machine data is growing at an exponential rate, Splunk’s platform is empowering companies to generate meaningful, real-time insights from the data in order to maintain critical operations related to security and IT infrastructure. A key advantage of Splunk’s platform is that it can easily index massive amounts of unstructured, machine data using a proprietary "schema on the fly" process. This indexing process quickly identifies fields like user IDs, time stamps, device sources, and error codes, and offers a user-friendly querying tool to generate real-time, actionable insights from the data. Machine data is expected to increase over 40-fold from 2009 to 2020, and the amount of data that Splunk’s platform allows customers to process in real time sets it apart, with its largest customer collecting over 7 petabytes of data per day. We believe that this unique schema-on-the-fly indexing process has allowed Splunk to carve out a moat and provides it the opportunity to increase by revenue double digits for the next decade.

Given the company's technology platform, which can be used to better manage operations at the busiest airports in the world as well as Subway restaurants, we believe no competitor can address the same breadth of use cases as Splunk. We believe that improving customer metrics indicate increasing customer reliance on Splunk due to its flexible deployment options and the growing importance of machine data. Over 80% of new license bookings come from existing customers while the average license order size more than doubled from 2014 to 2018. Splunk is seeing similarly strong trends in large order growth and rising maintenance renewal rates.”

--John Barrett, analyst

Splunk - a short guideline for recent drop on prices

 

Splunk Slides as Morgan Stanley Downgrades on Business Transition Issues

Splunk shares were trading sharply lower onTuesday after Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss cut his rating on the data analytics software company to Equal Weight from Overweight, reducing his target price on the stock to $160, from $213.

As Barron’s outlined in a recent article, Splunk (ticker: SPLK) is working through several major changes in its business, shifting toward a subscription-based revenue model while gradually moving toward a focus on cloud-based versions of its software. Those shifts have caused some disruptions in the company’s growth rate.

In a research note, Weiss says that he expects “more bumps” ahead for Splunk. He notes that the company has the potential to exceed $4 billion in annual recurring revenue within the next three years, which makes the company’s $20 billion enterprise value “seem inexpensive.” But he adds that he sees multiple near-term challenges that are likely to “keep multiples depressed near term.”

He sees “lingering 揮之不去 issues closing large deals,” increasing competition in the “observability” market, a software segment focused on monitoring the health of IT systems, and a “more challenging security landscape,” with increased competition in cyber analytics and a smaller boost from the recent Sunburst/SolarWinds hack attack than he had originally
expected.

綜上所述 Splunk 產業優勢仍沒有大變動, 仍是Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) Solutions項目的二大選擇之一 ( 另一個是IBM的QRadar )

不過reddit論壇這一段評論, 表示Splunk 近年來研發創新能力衰退, 反觀對手Elastic有迎頭趕上, 不斷研發許多新的功能給終端客戶

There are many more. Problem is, most of them rely on a way smaller set of use cases (security) so they aren’t frightening Splunk’s position. Elastic on the other hand.. they are investing more and more, especially into their endpoint client. While the Elastic query language and its usage for users is total garbage, the overall system is getting better.

While Splunk didn’t bring in any great features for the Universal Forwarder over the last couple years. Instead Splunk keeps acquiring companies and fails to integrate them. I’d say the time of creativity at Splunk is long gone. Just look at the .conf20, which was a 95% sales/marketing event. I know a lot of disappointed users.

What are some viable alternatives to Splunk that corporations use?

I'm looking into options for machine data log indexing and analytics (which I understand is Splunk's forte, correct me if I'm wrong), and I'm wondering what are some of Splunk's competitors in the same space. I heard there was a company called Elastic, how do they compare to Splunk? I also saw in the Magical Quadrant that IBM is a competitor, but I haven't heard much about that. Is that Red Hat or something else they are talking about? Any other competitors?

It depends on the use case. There are lots in both security and ops:

Data Dog, Loom, Moog all come to mind in ops; and QRadar, LogRhythm, ArcSight for security. There are plenty of others - APMs and NPMs which might be somewhat competitive but mostly I think they use Elastic.

In 'machine data' platforms most have been mentioned, Elastic and Sumo are the main ones I see, there are prob some others.

Ultimately if you want a leading SIEM and Ops platform in one it's Splunk.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Splunk/comments/esl68g/what_are_some_viable_alternatives_to_splunk_that/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Splunk/comments/k7n267/who_are_splunk_competitors/

https://kknews.cc/zh-tw/news/bmvgjvo.html

The Tully's departure “comes at a tough time” and compounds other risks facing Splunk, including sharper competition, pricing changes, and a transition of the customer base to the Splunk cloud platform, Keybanc analyst Michael Turits said in a note.

"The risk profile now looks balanced, with the departure adding yet another variable added to the equation,” Turits added.

Citi analyst Tyler Radke said the departure was an incremental negative for the stock, and investors may view the news as “a potential elongation of the transition/ongoing uncertainty.”

Rosenblatt Securities, on the other hand said, this was “a relatively minor setback for Splunk as its current product set and vision are well developed and its end markets remain robust