notes for small report

But in practice industrial policy is hard to get right. Helping companies is as likely to promote laziness as competitiveness. Moreover, officials may be no better—and perhaps much worse—than business people in choosing which industries to support.

State Grid Corporation of China 


One tentative conclusion is that China’s industrial policy works better when natural monopolies are involved. There is a clear role for a central authority with strong organising power to develop a power-transmission system or a high-speed rail network. Yet that same authority can stifle competition in sectors that need it. Alternatively, as often occurs in China, if lots of provincial governments try to foster their own champions, nominally in pursuit of national objectives, the outcome is extreme over-capacity, which undermines the targeted sector.


Ernest Liu of Princeton University argues that state support is most effective when it targets those sectors that make the most essential inputs for others. Generally, these are upstream; turning raw materials into products used in a range of industries. Subsidies for them, even via state firms, can raise overall efficiency.

如何計算投資的報酬/風險比例

https://blog.xuite.net/sandpiper/FX/31336442-%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%A8%88%E7%AE%97%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E7%9A%84%E5%A0%B1%E9%85%AC%2F%E9%A2%A8%E9%9A%AA%E6%AF%94%E4%BE%8B

猜對幾次 ~ 猜錯幾次

 Apri 2011 1722 台肥  猜對,  (但追不上 , 大跌後法人連拉3根漲停 )

Sep 2012  2498 宏達電  猜錯 ( 掉到300以下, 想接刀子, 此役只 -10%虧損, 事後整個投資信心喪失) 

Oct 2012  3008 大立光  猜對 ( 但抱不住, 當時美國Obama總統大選) 

June 2014  9904寶成    猜對

July 2014  2723 85度C   猜錯

Oct 2014   6166 凌華    猜對(大賺)

July 2015  權證做空台股  猜對 ( 大賺)

Dec 2015   權證做空台股    猜對 ( 小賺)

June 2016  權證做空台股  猜錯 ( 大賠 70%)

Sept 2016    同時做多(空)美股  不賺不賠

Nov 2016   做多美股     猜對

決策超過 5 小時？小心專案成功率只剩 18％

能夠在一小時以內迅速做出決策的專案，成功率高達58％（而且是在預算之內準時完成）。但要是決策耗時超過五個小時，成功率就會大幅下降到只剩18％

https://www.managertoday.com.tw/books/view/59830?utm_source=likr&utm_medium=likr&utm_campaign=59830

US economy forecast at end Mar 2020

Dear Bobby ~ 

Recently I subsequently explore on US market, also talk with a few investors who are both good at US economy observations. There are some points summarised as follow :

1. Last time we mentioned IHS Markit US Services Feb PMI sharply down 4% with the forecast. But leading index for manufactured sector Chicago PMI of Jan-Feb-Mar show as 42-49- 47.8. Unfinished orders soar and business inventory have been in minus since last Nov. It seems that business inventory is on closeout ( or clearance). and if US consumption can keep going, It'll create persistent demand for industrial production. Another sign to back up view is that  Capacity Utilization in Manufacturer increased to 77 percent in February from 76.60 percent in January 

US Economic forecast at early Mar 2020

Dear Bobby

I summarised the key point of market observation recently 

Basically I judge U.S economy is facing risk of slowing down on growth

Not only the threatening of Coronovirus, also movement of Economic supply become slowing Last week EU many countries, besides Italy and Spain have sank into Coronovirus 

( COVD-19) disater, Germany, Spain, France, UK have been warned by expected large growth of infected numbers also, their country leaders subsequently implement ban policy nationwide.

Recently Market slump for 20% because the view to EU economy decline in following 6 months.Traditionally, US- EU have sum of trade business we can see exports of US- EU and US- China for comparision : 

US- EU exports 2.5 times China's, it explain in last 2 weeks financial market continue suffering sell-off on concerning US badly effected by EU 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html

有關 Alteryx 的 Stock options 員工認股一點思考

看過Alteryx 公司的stock option, 有發現一些新的東西
stock option 是否會對於公司股價造成影響, 很難下定論, 影響成因也複雜
簡單來說請先看這張現金流量表的operating activity added back items, 截至2019Q3 公司在Stock based compensation 項目認列22,195費用( 千元單位) 只要員工有參加stock option股權獎勵計畫, 會計帳會認列一筆費用在Stock based compensation 項目下, 至於數字認列多少稍後再談, 那麼這筆22,195並沒有真正牽涉現金進出, 所以現金流量表會把它加回來