US Economic forecast at early Mar 2020

Dear Bobby

I summarised the key point of market observation recently 

Basically I judge U.S economy is facing risk of slowing down on growth

Not only the threatening of Coronovirus, also movement of Economic supply become slowing Last week EU many countries, besides Italy and Spain have sank into Coronovirus 

( COVD-19) disater, Germany, Spain, France, UK have been warned by expected large growth of infected numbers also, their country leaders subsequently implement ban policy nationwide.

Recently Market slump for 20% because the view to EU economy decline in following 6 months.Traditionally, US- EU have sum of trade business we can see exports of US- EU and US- China for comparision : 

US- EU exports 2.5 times China's, it explain in last 2 weeks financial market continue suffering sell-off on concerning US badly effected by EU 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html

有關 Alteryx 的 Stock options 員工認股一點思考

看過Alteryx 公司的stock option, 有發現一些新的東西
stock option 是否會對於公司股價造成影響, 很難下定論, 影響成因也複雜
簡單來說請先看這張現金流量表的operating activity added back items, 截至2019Q3 公司在Stock based compensation 項目認列22,195費用( 千元單位) 只要員工有參加stock option股權獎勵計畫, 會計帳會認列一筆費用在Stock based compensation 項目下, 至於數字認列多少稍後再談, 那麼這筆22,195並沒有真正牽涉現金進出, 所以現金流量表會把它加回來

Wework

 Valerie A. Potenza
  WeWork’s Debt Capacity



In the wake of the pulled IPO of The We Company (f/k/a as WeWork Companies, Inc.) the company’s ability to incur debt is of interest. In its S-1/A for the IPO, WeWork contemplated a new bank facility, to be entered into concurrently with the equity offering. That facility would have provided $2B of letters of credit and $4B of delayed draw term loans; however, only $1B of those loans would have been available “prior to receipt of financial statements for the three months ended June 30, 2020.”
With the IPO now out of the picture, WeWork is in need of cash—both debt and equity—with Bloomberg yesterday reporting that two paths are contemplate $5B of debt or an equity investment by SoftBank pursuant to which it would control the company. In addition, in its S- 1/A, WeWork disclosed that under its existing (private) credit facility that as of the end of Q2 , while it was in compliance with its covenants under the credit agreement and LC arrangements, it would not have been able to borrow in the future under its credit agreement due to financial covenants.
WeWork has outstanding $669mm of 7.875% Senior Notes due 2025, issued in April 2018. Other than the 30% equity claw (70% must remain outstanding), these bonds are only callable at their make-whole until 3 months prior to maturity—at approximately 129. In this report we take a look at debt capacity under the Senior Notes.

海龜 5 號 - Tableau software

1.

當初認識Tableau software 這家公司, 是回學校進修, 老師課堂介紹的軟體, 當我初次接觸Tableau使用介面, 第一印象是簡單, 易操作。每個地區或商品項的銷售量, 成本, 市占率都以視覺化呈現, 不像以往企業銷售或財務人員面對公司內部資料, 看一堆密密麻麻的數字,  以消費使用體驗來說, 覺得Tableau這產品很人性化, 又跟隨當前Big Data當紅趨勢, 當下想它有成為暢銷產品的基本條件, 未來應該會紅。

海龜2號 - 2723 KY 美食

海龜2號 - KY 美食

85度C是在2014模擬交易賠錢, 開始追蹤觀察,  沉寂2年半後於2017Q2意外發現它從250漲上來

當時85度C剛在美國開分店沒多久, 在美國華人聚集地颳出一陣台式麵包熱旋風, 我看到新聞說在加州和德州分店消費隊伍都要排好長, 立馬google 搜尋Yelp美食評論 -- 發現真的ㄝ ! 加州那邊華人都對85度C的咖啡, 珍珠奶茶以及最受好評的麵包做出許多好評, 在美國也能吃到家鄉美味感到有趣, 一長串人龍排隊要超過30分鐘買到一杯咖啡或克里姆麵包

5年內全美開出 150家

新聞報導2018全美要開出40家分店

來 ~ 開始驗證85度C開出40家分店, 到底是否合乎基本面估算 !?

做生意最重要看客人在哪裡 ! 客人數是否足夠支撐你開一家分店 !  85度C開出40家分店, 心裡第一個疑問 : 整個大美國到底有多少人會去85度C買咖啡(潛在市場) ?

1. 會去85度C應該都中國-香港-台灣人, 先查察US總共住多少中國人 ！？　答案總共514萬

Chinese_Americans_Population

2018-chinese-immigrants-united-states

現在做一個假設性比方 假如住美國的華裔吃零食習慣跟台灣人差不多, 把台北市 +新北市人口數 : 85度C店家數, 拿去套用美國市場. 

(台北市 +新北市) 689萬 : 

台北市 +新北市常住人口約680萬, 算一算85度C官網我查到台北市-新北市(直營店+加盟店) 總共97家, 再來推算 680萬/97家  = 70,103人 意思是華人飲食習慣, 胃口偏好, 一家85度C平均可以吸引70,103華人顧客

我們再來查查目前全美國華人總共有多少人口( 直接樂觀估計,整個亞裔族群住在美國的,  把日本裔, 韓國裔, 越南裔, 馬來西亞裔加一加, 他們都一起捧場美國85度C, 有些天真爛漫假設 👶 )

於2017-07-10 價位340買進, 暑假7-8月曾經漲到360沒賣出,想繼續抱著，但後來遇到北韓核武軍演, 從360跌到330, 當時候是我第一次貸款做投資, 帳面上虧10%, 一想到融資投進去的錢有虧損, 心裡仍有些怕怕的, 當下約320 ~ 330膽小的賣出, 之後股價有回到360, 剛好12月我得參加會計考試, 下班後得專心唸書, 怕心情受影響, 仍沒進場, 後來到11月底2723 果然受法人敲進從360一路被拉到390, ~過一個星期又漲超過400塊, 有點可惜我沒吃到, 
但看到85度C順著自己分析的邏輯, 順利漲上去, 心理仍半分成就感, 此役算是我2012宏達電撈底失敗, 2016做空台股大虧70%
沉潛幾年, 思考檢討, 復出市場的第一戰

PS: 後來成本會計考試有通過, 2017台股小賺10%, 美股ETF 投半年多爽賺25%, 跟現在年底一樣, 快樂跨年 🎉🎈

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-retail-debt/?fbclid=IwAR1vaOrIUK6WRDji-bx2jrqW9H8jSkuhsrHPZ1yMzUjfk-UlbuLl4jz8apk

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2018-06-17/doc-iheauxvy6850820.shtml?fbclid=IwAR2UFoZkSxBYECxpz-skqBSKE1dsBeWOflgp-tOgPehbfm4_MIZrEcDM3Zs