2022年5月30日 星期一

1915 ~ 1917 第一次世界大戰 美國通膨回顧

 




In the early years of the war, gold flowed into the U.S. as the European powers purchased war materiel from American companies and farms. This inflow of gold increased the domestic money supply, and prices began rising as a result. From a low inflation rate of 2% in 1915, inflation rose to an 11% rate in 1916. This increase in prices was fueled by an 11% rise in the base money supply in 1915, and a 15% increase in base money supply in 1916. Since the rise in the U.S. money supply was due to an inflow of gold from abroad, the Federal Reserve remained powerless to mitigate the inflation of prices, since by the rules of the gold standard, the increase in gold automatically resulted in an increase the base money in the banking system.



After the U.S. officially entered the war in April 1917, however, the net inflow of gold from abroad slowed, but the base money supply continued to grow at a high rate as the Federal Reserve acted as an agent of the Federal Government. The Fed’s main function after April 1917 was to underwrite the sale of Treasury bonds and Liberty Loan drives – the two main vehicles of government borrowing during the war. 
A Liberty bond (or liberty loan) was a war bond that was sold in the United States to support the Allied cause in World War I
In the two years between May 1917 and May 1919, there were four Liberty Loan drives and one Victory Loan drive, which came just after the war ended in early 1919. Just before the U.S. entered the war, the Federal Government spent less than $1 billion on miliary expenditures, but spending rose to $15 billion a year by 1918 and 1919. In order to fund this massive increase in spending, tax rates were raised, but the bulk of the spending was financed with debt. Federal debt rose from $1.2 billion in 1916 to $25.5 billion in 1919, and the Federal Reserve expanded the money supply to facilitate the expansion. On top of the 11% rise in 2015 and the 15% increase in 2016, the base money supply rose 21% in 1917, and another 16% in 1918.

2022年5月24日 星期二

Top 5 REITs For 2022 ( 抗通膨 好選擇 )

 

Top 5 REITs For 2022

Summary

  • Some of the air has come out of REITs, providing a good opportunity to acquire quality REITs at higher yields, better values, strong growth rates, and great profitability metrics


  • REITs can perform well in an inflationary environment and serve as an inflationary hedge. In a normalized or rebound economy, these 5 REITs would be our Top 2022 REIT Picks.


  • The REITs/Yields featured here, Agree Realty (ADC) 3.87%, Regency Centers (REG) 3.37%, STAG Industrial (STAG) 3.27%, Essential Properties (EPRT) 3.60%, and Alpine Income Property (PINE) 5.85% are rated Very Bullish.


  • Along with solid fundamentals, they offer good dividend safety ratings, solid dividend growth grades, and very attractive yields compared to the REIT sector.


Inflation : Real estate & Construction Industry



Paul Krugman - talk about Real estate 2022


However, the level of construction activity has a direct influence on labor and material demand and margins and therefore on construction inflation. 房屋開工建案熱度對於員工需求, 建材原料需求, 和毛利率有直接影響

One of the best predictors of construction inflation is the level of activity in an area. When the activity level is low, contractors are all competing for a smaller amount of work and therefore they may reduce margins in bids.降價, 通膨會下降 When activity is high, there is a greater opportunity to submit bids on more work and bid margins may be higher.抬高價格, 通膨會上漲 The level of activity has a direct impact on inflation.


Nonresidential buildings inflation 10-year average (2011-2020) is 3.7%. In 2020 it dropped to 2.5%, but for the six years 2014-2019 it averaged 4.4%. In 2021 it jumped to 9%, the highest since 2006. Residential 8-year average inflation for 2013-2020 is 5.0%

In 2020 it was 5.3%. In 2021 it jumped to 14%, the highest since 1978.

As of Sept 2021, PPI for materials inputs to construction is up ytd 15% to 18%. For the 18 months since March 2020,

the PPI for materials inputs to construction is up ytd 23%, but the PPI Buildings Cost Index for final cost to owner is up only 5% to 6%




A few are still reporting only 4% inflation for 2021, but several have moved up dramatically, now reflecting between +10% to +14%. My estimate for 2021 inflation has been changing, moving up again. Nonres bldgs inflation for 2021 is currently estimated at 8.7% and residential at 15%



Selling Price is whole building actual final cost. Selling price indices track the 
final cost of construction, which includes, in addition to costs of labor and materials and sales/use taxes, general contractor and sub-contractor margins or overhead and profit.

When construction activity is increasing, total construction costs typically increase more rapidly than the net cost of labor and materials. In active markets overhead and profit margins increase in response to increased demand. These costs are captured only in Selling Price, or final cost indices.

Producer Price Index (PPI) for Construction Inputs is an example of a commonly referenced construction cost index that does not represent whole building costs. The PPI is a materials cost index. Engineering News Record Building Cost Index (ENRBCI) and RSMeans Cost Index are other examples of commonly used indices that do not capture whole building cost.




Residential inflation indices are primarily single-family homes but would also be relevant for low-rise two to three story building types. Hi-rise residential work is more closely related to nonresidential building cost indices.

A nonresidential buildings index would be representative of commercial construction or hi-rise residential construction, since hi-rise residential is quite similar too commercial construction and in fact substantial portions of the building are constructed by firms classified as commercial constructors.

2022年5月23日 星期一

Square 's Crypto land scape

 


Dorsey’s case for bitcoin


As of the quarter ended in March, bitcoin still only accounted for roughly 5% of Block’s gross profits. But executives are betting on crypto as a secular trend in which Block could be well positioned. Dorsey described it as the “open standard for global money transmission” and said it will allow Block’s “entire business to move faster globally.”

Block first started offering bitcoin trading through the Cash App, and the company holds it on its balance sheet as an alternative to cash. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down more than 50% from its high and has struggled to regain its value so far this year.

Block’s crypto businesses have expanded to a bitcoin hardware wallet, a bitcoin-mining business, and an open-source business called TBD for developers. On top of that, there’s an independent, bitcoin-focused business within Block called Spiral.

Dorsey is not as bullish on other cryptocurrencies and said the “internet requires a currency native to itself, and looking at the entire ecosystem of technologies to fill this role, it’s clear that bitcoin is currently the only candidate.







Still, Block’s CFO, Ahuja said the company is outperforming its peers on profitability. Block released updated profit margins Wednesday — an increasingly important metric as investors prioritize the bottom line over growth.

Adjusted profit margins for the Square side of the business last year were 34%, and they were 12% for Cash App, according to the company. On the pure-growth side, Cash App now has 46 million monthly active users and 80 million annual actives as of March.

BNPL ( Buy now pay later ) 趨勢

 

Upstart Shares Crash After a Big Preliminary Miss, JMP Cuts to Market Perform  8 July 2022
The downturn of Macroeconomy lead to the money-striction on Banks 

The Global Digital Payment Market is expected to reach USD$ 12.55 Trillion by 2027, grow with a CAGR of 10.9% ( some report state reach USD 15.27 trillion by 2027, grow with a CAGR of 12.38% ) . For years, the market has been haunting for a payment solution that delivers a better customer experience.

by 2025, BNPL will account for more than 12% of total ecommerce. The Kaleido study suggests that BNPL spend via mobile will grow at more than 16% CAGR until 2025

有人指出 BNPL sales expected to more than double between 2021 and 2026, roughly 20% CAGR  annually

in Southeast Asia at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of between 15% and 20% over the next five to ten years

Measures to Stop the Debt Trap
At Australia’s Afterpay, customers are barred from using its services after they miss a payment. According to the company, 95% of its transactions globally are paid back on time, and late fees contribute less than 14% of its total income


Another crucial aspect of the performance of any lending entity is its delinquency/default rate. Here’s an analysis of the default rates of some of the larger BNPL providers across regions: These numbers resemble credit card delinquency rates—hovering between 1.5% and 2.4% over the past one year


Paypal 的 BNPL ( Buy now pay later ) 追蹤




PayPal has now staked a claim for Paidy, a Japanese BNPL player with 6M members. In March, Paidy had raised JPY 13B from George Soros, one of the largest fundraises by a private company in Japan. Visa is also one of its backers, along with trading house Itochu Corp. Paidy is being valued at $2.7B by PayPal, and the deal should be completed by Q4. 

Thus far, PayPal has been servicing its 4.3M active Japanese accounts, focusing on cross-border e-commerce payments for overseas products. PayPal’s narrow focus in Japan thus far shouldn’t come as a surprise. Japan is the third-largest e-commerce market globally, with online shopping volumes more than tripling over the last decade to over $200B.

With the Paidy acquisition, PayPal is now positioning itself for the domestic payments market in Japan. Its economic superpower tag notwithstanding, Japan still sees two-thirds of its population using cash to make payments. As payment mode shifts to digital, Paidy is right there to grab a share.

2022年5月18日 星期三

2022美國通膨追蹤







👆👆上面美國銀行商業信用萬一繼續升上去,  美股確定 GG 

去年2021.9月 保羅. 克魯曼仍覺得通膨不是個大問題, 如下述 : 

克魯曼表示,在新冠疫情造成扭曲之前,可用「核心通膨」Core CPI概念輕易解答此問題。1970年代,經濟學家戈登(Robert Gordon)建議,諸如石油、黃豆等大宗商品的價格不時波動,應與其他調整頻率較不那麼頻繁的物價加以區別。戈登主張,比起整體通膨指標,剔除食物與能源的通膨指標更能忠實反映根本的通膨現況。👈 問題是值到2021年底, 核心通膨也脹起來了

再進一步探討, 假如通膨真得起來, 要判斷它是否惡化下去, 第一個觀察原物料是否續漲, 另一個觀察重點 - 工資是否上漲

我們先看去年新聞報導 :
鮑爾指向另一種不同的指標:工資漲幅。在疫情衝擊最大的一些行業,這項指標近來升幅可觀;但整體而言,根據亞特蘭大聯邦準備銀行追蹤工資成長的指標,似乎仍屬溫和,尚未見到工資與物價呈螺旋性上升(wage-price spiral)的跡象, 解釋請看這篇

2022年5月17日 星期二

銀行股指標 Delinquency rate 和 Default rate 差異

 


Delinquency means that you are behind on payments.遲繳貸款  Once you are delinquent for a certain period of time (usually nine months for federal loans), your lender will declare the loan to be in default.遲繳9個月, 債主認列呆帳default The entire loan balance will become due at that time.


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/062315/what-are-differences-between-delinquency-and-default.asp



https://www.investopedia.com/historical-us-credit-card-delinquency-rates-5120737



2022年5月12日 星期四

Digital payment industry 追蹤 ( 一 )

先了解一下支付運作過程

Digital payment process : a quick look

ABC's Payment value chain



Digital payment 的基本架構& 專有名詞 ( Paypal 為例 )

Transaction expense
 is primarily composed of the costs related to a customer’s funding source of payment. These costs include fees paid to payment processors and other financial institutions when we draw funds from a customer’s credit or debit card, bank account, or other funding source they have stored intheir digital wallet



We refer to the allocation of funding sources used by our consumers as our “funding mix.” The cost of funding a transaction with a credit ordebit card is generally higher than the cost of funding a transaction from a bank or through internal sources such as a PayPal or Venmo account balance or our consumer credit products. As we expand the availability and presentation of alternative funding sources to our customers, our funding mix may change, which could increase or decrease our transaction expense rate





Our transaction expense rate is impacted bychanges in product mix, merchant mix, regional mix, funding mix, and fees paid to payment processors and other financial institutions

Transaction expense increased by $2.4 billion, or 30%, in 2021 compared to 2020 due primarily to an increase in TPV of 33%. The decrease in transaction expenserate in 2021 compared to 2020 was due primarily to a decline in transaction expense rates associated with both our core PayPal and Braintree products, offset by anincrease in the share of volume associated with our Braintree products




Transaction and credit losses

Transaction losses include the expense associated with our buyer and seller protection programs, fraud, and chargebacks. Credit losses include the losses associated with our merchant and consumer loans receivable portfolio. Beginning in 2020, these losses are based on current expected credit losses. Our transaction and credit losses fluctuate depending on many factors, including TPV, product mix, current and projected macroeconomic conditions including unemployment rates,merchant insolvency events, changes to and usage of our customer protection programs, the impact of regulatory changes, and the credit quality of loans receivable arising from transactions funded with our credit products for consumers and loans and advances to merchants.




Transaction losses were $1.2 billion and $1.1 billion for the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, reflecting an increase of $18 million, or 2%,year-over-year. Transaction loss rate (transaction losses divided by TPV) was 0.09%, 0.12%, and 0.15% for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020, and 2019,respectively. The increase in transaction losses was due primarily to growth in TPV, partially offset by benefits realized from continued risk mitigation strategies,which also contributed to a decrease in our transaction loss rate over the same period. The duration and severity of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related global economic conditions remain unknown. Any negative impacts on macroeconomic conditions could increase the risk of merchant bankruptcy,insolvency, business failure, or other business interruption, which may adversely impact our transaction losses, particularly for merchants that sell goods or services in advance of the date of their delivery or use.

Net charge-off ,  Loss reserve

來看一下什麼是Loan loss reserve  ! 

What Is Loan Loss Reserve? 

Loan loss reserves (LLRs) are types of insurance and credit enhancement that help banks and lenders mitigate estimated losses on loans in the event of defaults or nonpayments. Should borrowers default on their loan, banks might use loan loss reserve funds to alleviate these losses.
How Often Are Loan Loss Reserves Calculated?

Loan loss reserves are revised quarterly. Should an increase in the balance occur, it is called a loan loss provision. A decrease in the balance, however, is referred to as a net charge-off.

Loan Loss Reserve Accounting Example

Bank XYZ has made $10,000,000 of loans to various companies and individuals. Bank XYZ works very hard to ensure that it lends only to people who are able to repay their loans in full and on time. However, some will inevitably default, fall behind, or even need to renegotiate their loan payments.

Bank XYZ knows this and estimates that 1% of its loans (i.e. $100,000) will probably never be paid. This $100,000 estimate is recorded as Bank XYZ’s reserve for loan losses and is entered a negative number on the asset portion of its balance sheet.

If Bank XYZ decides to write all (or a portion) of a loan off, it will remove the loan from its asset balance while also removing the amount of the write-off from its loan loss reserve. The amount deducted from the loan loss reserve may be tax-deductible for Bank XYZ.



繼續看Paypal 財報注釋
The benefit in the year ended December 31, 2021 was attributable to the net release of reserves for loans receivable due to improvements in both current and projected macroeconomic conditions, including lower projected unemployment rates, as well as improvements in the credit quality of loans outstanding, partially offset by provisions for originations during the period. Allowances for our merchant and consumer portfolios included qualitative adjustments which took into account continued volatility with respect to macroeconomic conditions, as well as uncertainty around the financial health of our merchant borrowers, including uncertainty around the effectiveness of loan modification programs made available to merchants. The credit losses in the year ended December 31, 2020 were primarily associated with an increase in provisions for our loans receivable portfolio resulting from a reserve build driven by a sharp deterioration inmacroeconomic projections reflecting the anticipated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and provisions associated with originations, both of which significantly increased our then current expected credit losses, and to a lesser extent, changes in credit quality during the period. The increase in provisions associated with macroeconomic projections in the year ended December 31, 2020 included qualitative adjustments to account for the impact of limitations in our expected credit loss models resulting from the extreme fluctuations in both the actual and projected macroeconomic conditions during the period as well as to incorporate varying degrees of merchant performance in the current environment and expected performance in future periods. The consumer loans and interest receivable balance as of December 31, 2021 and 2020 was $3.8 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, representing a year-over-year increase of 77% driven by growth of our installment credit products in international markets and the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, growth of PayPal Credit ininternational markets. 


The net charge-off rate at December 31, 2020 benefited from payment holidays provided by the Company as a part of our COVID-19 payment relief initiatives.We offer merchant finance products for certain small and medium-sized businesses, which we refer to as our merchant finance offerings. Total merchant loans, advances, and interest and fees receivable outstanding, net of participation interest sold, as of both December 31, 2021 and 2020 were approximately $1.4billion. Approximately 82% and 8% of our merchant receivables outstanding as of December 31, 2021 were due from merchants in the U.S. and U.K, as compared to approximately 81% and 10% as of December 31, 2020, respectively



The increase in the percent of current merchant receivables, decrease in percent of merchant receivables greater than 90 days outstanding, and decrease in the net charge-off rate for merchant receivables at December 31, 2021 as compared to December 31, 2020 were primarily due to the charge-off of accounts that experienced financial difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the prior year as well as improved performance in the current year partially attributableto the below mentioned modifications to the acceptable risk parameters including tightening of eligibility terms. Beginning in the third quarter of 2020, we granted certain merchants loan modifications intended to provide them with financial relief and help enable us tomitigate losses. The associated loans and interest receivable have been treated as troubled debt restructurings due to the borrowers experiencing financial difficulty and significant changes in their loan structure, including repayment terms and/or fee and rate structure. Modifications to the acceptable risk parameters of our credit products in 2020 in response to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the implementation of a number of risk mitigation strategies, including reduction of maximum loan size, tightening eligibility terms, and a shift from automated to manual underwriting of loans and advances. These changes in acceptable risk parameters resulted in a decrease in originations in 2020 as compared to prepandemic levels. We continue to evaluate and modify our acceptable risk parameters in response to the changing macroeconomic environment and such changes in2021 have resulted in a gradual increase in originations over the past nine months. While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic environmentremains uncertain, the longer and more severe the pandemic, the more likely it may have a material adverse impact on our borrowing base, which is primarily comprised of small and medium-sized merchants. For additional information, see “Note 11—Loans and Interest Receivable” in the notes to the consolidated financial statements, and “Item 1A. Risk Factors—Our credit products expose us to additional risks” included in this Form 10-K.








Analysts expect Square's Bitcoin revenue to continue rising this year before cooling off next year. They also expect its growth in transaction-based and seller service revenue, which slowed down 這應該是Ark 木頭姐大舉買 Square 原因


据悉,近日,美国移动支付公司Square表示,将通过290亿美元的全股票形式交易,收购澳大利亚金融科技支付公司Afterpay向消费贷款领域扩张。交易完成后,预计Afterpay持有合并后公司约18.5%的股份。

  这一消息提振了Affirm股价,可能是因为猜测该公司可能成为收购目标。Affirm美股周一收盘涨14.90%,报64.71美元。

  对于SquareAfterpay的合并,Max Levchin表示该交易“是一个强有力的声明”,即支付处理的“世界正在改变”。他表示:“信用卡将成为这笔交易的输家。”此外,他没有直接回答有关潜在追求者的问题,称他无法预测,但指出Affirm一直是收购方

加密货币方面,Max Levchin还暗示该公司可能正在考虑接受加密货币,称Affirm将“去商家想去的地方”。该公司目前暂不接受比特币,Max Levchin认为加密货币正在“过渡到主流”。Max Levchin称不想“预先宣布”任何事情,但他确实表示,随着对比特币和其他加密货币接受程度不断上升,Affirm将“拭目以待”

2022年5月10日 星期二

2022年5月8日 星期日

1959 Bonds yield flipped over Dividends', but it's just the the past

1959 年債券殖利率曾經第三次超過股票殖利率(前2次分別 1989和 1929), 而導致股市大跌 而隨即展開2年的高點震盪 


my partners, veterans of the Great Crash, kept assuring me that the seeming trend was nothing but an aberration變異. They promised me that matters would revert to normal in just a few months, that stock prices would fall and bond prices would rally.

 

2022年5月7日 星期六

Investment Banks, Hedge Funds, and Private Equity 重點摘要

 

 

Hedge fund strategies have become more diversified in order to reduce investment risk.For example, in 1990, macro investments by hedge funds comprised 39% of all hedge fund assets. By 2008, this strategy comprised only 20% of hedge fund assets. During the same period of time, arbitrage and event-driven strategies combined grew from 24% to 48% of all hedge fund assets

 arbitrage event-driven strategies大量使用這解釋為何2018年後大盤震盪這麼激烈






2022年5月6日 星期五

中國市場 ( 二)

 


中國貴州 貴陽市



source from Credit-Sussie 

China is ‘Changing Gears’ — what are your expectations for China over the next 12-months?

Janice Hu: China’s economic rebalancing and upgrading is expected to remain well on track, despite the near-term pressure in the coming few quarters due to the weakness in consumption and the cooling property market.

美國投資英文 術語

 


vertical market?

vertical market, also referred to as a “business vertical” is a term used to describe a specific industry or market that focuses on a particular niche. For example, organic groceries could be considered a vertical market as the companies and consumers in this niche are only interested in buying or selling organic goods.

 


horizontal market?

Horizontal markets are markets that meet the needs of customers in a wide variety of industries rather than one niche industry. For example, a large grocery store chain could be considered part of a horizontal market as it most likely caters to a wide audience and relies on various retailers in several industries.

Horizontal markets are typically adapted by small or new businesses that might lack necessary capital, staff or general resources. These companies, therefore, partner with other companies—temporarily or permanently—to share resources and profit. 可以解釋為何台灣鄉下地區小餐廳, 不管中式西式, 剛開幕屬於專門餐點( 義大利麵, 台灣菜, 日本料理) 過了 1-2年就火鍋, 排餐, 燴飯, 炒麵什麼都賣


"Dollar-cost averaging (DCA)”  定期定額 ( 平均成本法)

It’s an investment technique of buying a fixed dollar amount of a particular investment on a regular schedule, regardless of the share price."


Moonshot Investing

What Is Moonshot Investing? Moonshot investing is investing in companies you believe will have a meteoric rise. It is based on identifying a trend and knowing that the market will eventually rate the companies much higher.


我搞錯 波羅地海指數BDI 在總經預測的位置

 

以前一直以為BDI Index 黃金交叉, 代表景氣要恢復, 它是海運大量運輸原物料和大宗物資的訊號, 而原物料和大宗物資需求通常是景氣循環第一關, 引申出BDI 黃金交叉代表景氣要恢復, 而且股市會進入艾略特波浪第一階段 !?  ( 這個思維盲點, 讓我2022Q1台股疏於戒心, 現在套住)

我們來實際看圖驗證一下



圖表出處