美債殖利率曲線 - 景氣循環

 

美股韭菜王

 

殖利率曲線重大轉變，但不是暗示經濟衰退。

最近美債殖利率曲線的長、短天期利差收斂，使得斜率持續趨平，有看到一些分析說，債市擔憂經濟衰退，我個人是持著不同想法。

我想債市目前並不是暗示經濟衰退將來臨，而只是在部分定價經濟放緩的預期，主要是針對下列 3 個因子來作漸進式定價。

(1) Fed 緊縮預期、

(2) 今年高基期帶來的明年經濟放緩預期、

(3) 更遠看，升息後帶來的經濟放緩預期。

剛好搭上美債殖利率曲線趨平的市況，所以下面順便跟大家分享殖利率曲線彰顯的景氣 4 循環，一樣具有「復甦、擴張、放緩、衰退」涵義在裡面。

而目前美債殖利率曲線斜率趨平針對上述 3 點的定價，似乎也正暗示我們已進入了第 2 循環。

當然，對應每個殖利率曲線週期，在資產組合的配置上、尤其是作股、債配置的基金，會有一個「基本」相對應的配置，但這就是「基本原則」罷了。

報酬率想要勝過大盤，選股上還是得在各循環內以 Bottom-up 方式去選股，所以大家就在這個「基本原則」下，適宜的參考使用吧。

**貼心小提醒：文長，想直接了解我們現在落在哪一個循環，以及資產配置思路的，就 End 看倒數第二段吧。

財務分析

 

Splunk - perspective from Morningstar

Splunk: Future Tech Behemoth Still Trading At Modest Levels

Jul. 11, 2021 10:39 AM ETSplunk Inc. (SPLK)4 Comments13 Likes

Summary

• Shares of Splunk remain down ~20% year-to-date for no apparent reason.
• The company is just passing the jump of its cloud transition, as revenue has started turning positive again, with cloud bookings exceeding >50% of the total.
• ARR growth is still clinging to a rapid ~40% pace.
• A recent $1 billion convertible stock investment by Silver Lake Partners, with a strike price of $160, signals upward confidence in the stock.
• Splunk is still trading attractively at <8x next year's revenue.

Splunk

Economic Moat Rating increased to Narrow from None 

“We are raising our fair value estimate for Splunk to US$154 per share from US$126 while changing our moat rating to narrow from none and maintaining our positive trend rating. We are upgrading our moat rating to reflect our increased confidence in Splunk’s ability to attain sustainable profitability.

In a world where machine data is growing at an exponential rate, Splunk’s platform is empowering companies to generate meaningful, real-time insights from the data in order to maintain critical operations related to security and IT infrastructure. A key advantage of Splunk’s platform is that it can easily index massive amounts of unstructured, machine data using a proprietary "schema on the fly" process. This indexing process quickly identifies fields like user IDs, time stamps, device sources, and error codes, and offers a user-friendly querying tool to generate real-time, actionable insights from the data. Machine data is expected to increase over 40-fold from 2009 to 2020, and the amount of data that Splunk’s platform allows customers to process in real time sets it apart, with its largest customer collecting over 7 petabytes of data per day. We believe that this unique schema-on-the-fly indexing process has allowed Splunk to carve out a moat and provides it the opportunity to increase by revenue double digits for the next decade.

Given the company's technology platform, which can be used to better manage operations at the busiest airports in the world as well as Subway restaurants, we believe no competitor can address the same breadth of use cases as Splunk. We believe that improving customer metrics indicate increasing customer reliance on Splunk due to its flexible deployment options and the growing importance of machine data. Over 80% of new license bookings come from existing customers while the average license order size more than doubled from 2014 to 2018. Splunk is seeing similarly strong trends in large order growth and rising maintenance renewal rates.”

--John Barrett, analyst