SaaS 名詞解釋

 

First-mover advantage

Why being the first mover is mostly irrelevant

 

Inbound marketing overview

Inbound marketing is a strategic approach to creating valuable content that aligns with the needs of your target audiences and inspires long-term customer relationships. Your customers are your customers because you provide solutions to their problems.

WHAT ARE ETL TOOLS?

Given that a data warehousing environment includes data from disparate sources, many users deploy some varation of extract, transform, load (ETL) -- often automated and scheduled -- to process heterogeneous data and unify it for analysis. Having the right tools for the task at hand is important to ensuring a seamless flow of data from pirmary sources to end-user analysts or data scientists. Extract, transform, load is a primary component of data integration, along with data preparation, data migration and management, and data warehouse automation.

ETL tools collect, read and migrate data from multiple data sources or structures and can identify updates or changes to data streams to avoid constant whole data set refreshes.Operationally, the tools can filter, join, merge, reformat, aggregate and for some, integrate with BI applications. ELT (Extract, Load, Transform) is a more recent variant that acknowledges the transformation part of the process is not always required before loading,

What to look for in an ETL tool

• Easy to use, maintain, and highly secure
• Connects to all required data sources to fetch all relevant data
• Works seamlessy with other components of your data platform, including data warehouses and data lakes (via ELT)

cloud-hosted PBX system 雲端視訊電話

Cloud - hosted PBX system

Metric

A metric is a meaningful measurement taken over a period of time that communicates vital information about a process or activity, leading to fact-based decisions. Metrics are usually specialized by the subject area. In business, they are sometimes referred to as key performance indicators (KPI).

feedback loop

A feedback loop is a process in which the outputs of a system are circled back and used as inputs. In business, this refers to the process of using customer or employee feedback (the outputs of a service or product), to create a better product or workplace.

What is an AE in SaaS?

An Account Executive (AE) is a salesperson. They are usually responsible for serving the needs of existing customers and closing sales deals to create new customers. They typically have a revenue target, and are paid commissions when they sell their company's products and services.

May 21, 2019

IZZAX 景氣循環投資 筆記

 

IZZAX 景氣循環投資  Page 30- 60

長期投資 : 在生產力循環之下，美國股市的長期報酬率和穩定性會比其他資產高。在接下來的(預期縮表 -> 實際縮表 -> 預期升息 -> 實際升息 -> 第一次降息)之前，都應該堅定持有。(當然也可以透過策略在降低風險)。

 

美國在走出第2次世界大戰後，經濟開始進入穩定擴張的狀態。在過去3/4個世紀中，(生產力)和(通膨)二個重要因子，決定了長期景氣擴張動能和資本市場的榮枯。

生產力循環 : 2次技術革新拉動生產力揚升，推動美股大牛循環。

關鍵要素為(人口增速 / 工作時數 / 勞動生產力)，其中又以勞動生產力影響最大。只要美國的勞動生產力能夠大幅揚升，就會帶來綿長且強勁的經濟增長擴張期。而要大幅提升勞動生產力，都須要生產技術的跳躍式革新

 

如 : 1950 – 1960 – 1970年(共20年)。1980 – 1990 – 2000年(共20年)。這40年的驗証，只要是技術革新帶來的勞動生產力揚升的總體經濟擴張，美國股市必然出現特大牛市。(股市約在20年上漲約10倍)。

擔憂2年- 10年殖利率倒掛 !？鮑爾呼籲 速抗俄烏通膨

 

Mar 22, 2022

 聯準會(Fed)主席鮑爾(Jerome Powell、見圖中)暗示貨幣政策收緊程度恐比市場預期積極，必要時甚至會一口氣升息兩碼，引發殖利率曲線倒掛疑慮。

鮑爾21日對全美企業經濟協會(National Association of Business Economics, NABE)表示，Fed得「迅速」(expeditiously)行動抗通膨，若有必要，升息幅度甚至會高於尋常，從傳統的一碼改為兩碼。他說「就業市場非常強勁，通膨則委實太高(inflation is much too high)」

 

尤其是在無法滿足需求的商品方面，他坦言Fed官員及許多經濟學家普遍低估了通膨延續的時間。鮑爾仍舊相信，供給面將逐漸復原，但時間及紓解範圍高度不確定。

 

正常情況下Fed會忽略這些事件, 維持政策不變。然而由於戰況不明，這增添了供應鏈及通膨壓力,    鮑爾提醒決策者須保持警戒。他說「正常時候，當就業及通膨皆已接近目標，貨幣政策會忽略原物料價格震盪帶來的短暫通膨壓力。然而，通膨一直居高不下，可能令長期預期上升至令人不安的地步，這凸顯央行必須快速行動的必要性。

鮑爾他解釋，升息兩碼「並不是已經做出的決定。若我們認為，某場或某幾場會議應升息50個基點，我們就會這麼做.....去(2021)年底大家原本預期，通膨將在今年第一季觸頂、也許逐步降溫，下半年就會看到許多進展，但這個假設已遭堆翻。有鑑於此，我和同事或許會判定，未來需加快行動的速度，若真是如此我們會照做。」

 

公債遠期合約預測，美國2年期公債殖利率將在6月上探2.29%、屆時會比10年期公債殖利率多出1個基點，導致2年、10年期公債的殖利率曲線倒掛，為2007年來首見。目前10年債殖利率仍較2年債高0.22個百分點，但已較一年前的1.62個百分點大幅收斂。自1980年代以來，每一次經濟衰退前、這條殖利率曲線都會倒掛。

 

Zero Hedge曾於3月17日報導，5年期公債殖利率已超越10年期公債、為2020年3月以來首次出現倒掛情況。德意志銀行分析師Jim Reid發表研究報告指出，雖然不是每一次升息循環都會導致經濟衰退，但所有促使殖利率曲線倒掛的升息行動，都可看到經濟在1~3年內陷入衰退

10 年股市循環 - 利率升息 - 資金水位

 

市場上，所有低買高賣的動作→就是投機

而差別只在於每個人買、賣之間的頻度不同而已，買賣(交易)的頻度越頻繁，當然持有的時間也越短，也就是所謂的「週期較短」，反之亦然。

一般初踏入證券市場的交易者(我們都曾經歷過)，應該就如圖示的粉紅線條，經常在追逐消息，經常在買賣，而粉紅線條的波峰波谷，也不過是微小的波動，但我們卻在追逐這個「機會、運氣」，猜對就賺，猜錯就賠，新手總是猜錯，有經驗一點的，猜對的機率大一點，但總是小賺而已。

而進階的老手，可以從A抱到B，獲利通常也比較多一點，也就是目前市場上所謂的波段操作，可這也只是屬於短、中期的波段操作(幾個月-1年)，但操作的頻度已有明顯降低。不過，他們依靠的是以技術分析來判斷，目前是多頭趨勢或是空頭趨勢，然後順勢操作。但總會有趨勢突然轉變與技術型態不符的時候，因而被咬了一大口，願意紀律操作的，受的傷輕一點，過度相信技術型態的，偶爾傷重回吐整年獲利還倒賠！這就是盲點~~

自從來到高手社團後，看到所謂見天地的贏家、智者─安納金、艾瑞克，他們的判斷依據，已不再只依靠技術線型，這個已經交易完成之後的統計訊息。

在B到C的時候，技術線型會轉空，但他們為什麼仍喊多?? 因為他們看到了D，所以他們才會說週期不同，沒有辦法一起討論，因為沒有交集。

那為什麼他們看到了D ?? 然後在B到C，市場一片悲觀，轉空聲音不斷，他們卻在C敢喊買進?? 這差別就在於，他們掌握了潮汐(全球資金面的水位變化)，看清楚了投資心理的變化，所以總感覺他們一切都了然於胸，平心以待。

在全球資金水位沒有發生退潮之下，心理遲早會轉正，早或晚而已，早或晚的時間點，就在重要事件的發生前後啊！於是，他們只需要在那個時間點觀察、調整，除非出現黑天鵝事件，否則並不需要隨著波動起伏，操作頻度搞不好一年只出手幾次而已，但卻可以順著水漲船高，於D點靠岸下船，到達多數人到不了的彼岸。

個人推測，愛大就是屬於完整波段(A買進、C買進，中途不賣，抱到D再出場)，長線的投機者(或是一般所稱投資)

而安大，一部分比例持股屬於完整波段長線的投機者，一部分比例屬於中線投機(A買進→B賣出，C買進→D賣出)。所以安大有一定比例的A股部位都沒動(從前後期發文的持股比例推算的)，而一部分在B調整賣出，然後在B往C途中，再觀察時機買進。

Ray Dalio : Fed 升息不會讓現金和債券資產看起來較 可口美味

Fed hikes won’t make cash or bonds attractive: Ray Dalio  

 Jan 24, 2022

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates is unlikely to make cash or bonds attractive to own, says Ray Dalio, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund with over $150 billion in assets, in an exclusive interview with Fortune India.

 

With consumer price inflation close to a four-decade high of 7%, the Fed in its December meeting announced that it would wind down its quantitative easing programme (bond purchases) by March. The market is already anticipating that the central bank could also announce a rate hike around the same time — the first hike since the end of 2018 — followed by two more 25 basis points hikes later during the year.

 

Dalio believes that it is unlikely that the interest rate increases will bring cash or bond rates up to attractive levels relative to alternative investment returns. “The projected rate increases will not be adequate enough to make cash and bonds an attractive alternative, and neither will it be enough to curtail inflation. So, in relation to inflation there will still be negative returns in those assets even if there is a rate hike,” believes Dalio. ㄝ害 ~ 他認為連升息也救不了通膨

 

Following the Fed hawkish signal, the benchmark US 10-year T-bill hit a high of 1.9% — the highest level since January 2020 — before retreating to 1.83%. The strengthening of yields has spooked equity markets across the globe, including India. However, Dalio does not expect a steep fall in the markets for now. “Any significant downturn in the markets and economy is unlikely in 2022; though 2023 and 2024 should get progressively riskier,” tells Dalio.

很明顯 ~ 他認為這次狀況會跟1970s初期一樣

 

Sharing his analysis of economic cycles, Dalio explains that, typically, a recessionary cycle leads to a lot of stimulation by central banks, resulting in an economic expansion that is followed by inflation. The price spike is then followed by tighter monetary policy that leads to a recession, and then the cycle repeats again. On average, the cycle lasts about seven years, but the length of them is determined by how much debt and money creation there is and how much slack capacity there is before production constraints are hit.

市場需求和企業生產要緊密配合, 假如商品賣不出去, 存貨堆積, 企業呆帳飆升(慘) 企業獲利一衰退, 接下來裁員, 產能利用率降( 工廠關機台) slack capacity 就是生產供給面受擠壓, 甚至衰退production constraints