US economy forecast at end Mar 2020

Dear Bobby ~ 

Recently I subsequently explore on US market, also talk with a few investors who are both good at US economy observations. There are some points summarised as follow :

1. Last time we mentioned IHS Markit US Services Feb PMI sharply down 4% with the forecast. But leading index for manufactured sector Chicago PMI of Jan-Feb-Mar show as 42-49- 47.8. Unfinished orders soar and business inventory have been in minus since last Nov. It seems that business inventory is on closeout ( or clearance). and if US consumption can keep going, It'll create persistent demand for industrial production. Another sign to back up view is that  Capacity Utilization in Manufacturer increased to 77 percent in February from 76.60 percent in January 

US Economic forecast at early Mar 2020

Dear Bobby

I summarised the key point of market observation recently 

Basically I judge U.S economy is facing risk of slowing down on growth

Not only the threatening of Coronovirus, also movement of Economic supply become slowing Last week EU many countries, besides Italy and Spain have sank into Coronovirus 

( COVD-19) disater, Germany, Spain, France, UK have been warned by expected large growth of infected numbers also, their country leaders subsequently implement ban policy nationwide.

Recently Market slump for 20% because the view to EU economy decline in following 6 months.Traditionally, US- EU have sum of trade business we can see exports of US- EU and US- China for comparision : 

US- EU exports 2.5 times China's, it explain in last 2 weeks financial market continue suffering sell-off on concerning US badly effected by EU 

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html